25 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

SC Freiburg vs Bayern München Bundesliga prediction & result

Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg
Referee: Felix Zwayer
Full time1 – 3

Final score: SC Freiburg 1-3 Bayern München.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% SC Freiburg, 22% draw, 52% Bayern München — fair odds of 3.85, 4.55 and 1.92.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Bayern München at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
⚽Dayot Upamecanoassist: Michael Olise
Lucas Höler
25'
42'
⚽Serge Gnabryassist: Nathaniel Brown
Jan-Niklas Beste
55'
🔁Lucas Hölerout: Igor Matanović
57'
🔁Patrick Osterhageout: Rihito Yamamoto
58'
61'
🔁Josip Stanišićout: Sacha Boey
61'
🔁Serge Gnabryout: Ismael Saibari
🔁Jan-Niklas Besteout: Cyriaque Irié
64'
65'
Jonathan Tah
73'
🔁Nathaniel Brownout: Alphonso Davies
🔁Derry Lionel Scherhantout: Vincenzo Grifo
77'
🔁Philipp Lienhartout: Maximilian Rosenfelder
77'
⚽Tom Bischof (OG)
82'
Maximilian Eggestein
85'
86'
🔁Lennart Karlout: Hiroki Ito
90+5'
⚽Michael Olise

Match stats — SC Freiburg vs Bayern München

44%Possession56%
16Shots17
4On target9
5Corners6
0.97xG3.05

Goals against chances

SC Freiburg1 from 0.97 xGabout what the chances were worth
Bayern München3 from 3.05 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

SC Freiburg 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. BackhausG
  • 29P. TreuD
  • 28M. GinterD
  • 3P. LienhartD
  • 33J. MakengoD
  • 8M. EggesteinM
  • 6P. OsterhageM
  • 19J. BesteM
  • 14Y. SuzukiM
  • 7D. ScherhantM
  • 9L. HölerF
Substitutes
  • 20R. YamamotoM
  • 37M. RosenfelderD
  • 21F. MüllerG
  • 31I. MatanovićF
  • 17L. KüblerD
  • 22Cyriaque Kalou IriéF
  • 30C. GünterD
  • 32V. GrifoM
  • 42K. GotoF
Coach: J. Schuster
Bayern München 4-2-3-1
  • 40J. UrbigG
  • 44J. StanišićD
  • 2D. UpamecanoD
  • 4J. TahD
  • 11N. BrownD
  • 27K. LaimerM
  • 8T. BischofM
  • 17M. OliseM
  • 42L. KarlM
  • 7S. GnabryM
  • 9H. KaneF
Substitutes
  • 34I. SaibariM
  • 47David DaiberM
  • 30Cassiano KialaD
  • 21H. ItoD
  • 19A. DaviesD
  • 35Jannis BärtlG
  • 46T. BinderM
  • 26S. UlreichG
  • 23S. BoeyD
Coach: V. Kompany

Form going into SC Freiburg vs Bayern München

SC Freiburg

Bundesliga

  • L1-2away to Bayer Leverkusen18 October 2026
  • W2-1FC Schalke 0411 October 2026

Bayern München

Bundesliga

  • W6-1RB Leipzig17 October 2026
  • D2-2away to FC Augsburg10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3SC Freiburg96122010+1019
1Bayern München9630299+2021

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: SC Freiburg vs Bayern München

  • 4 April 2026SC Freiburg 2–3 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
  • 22 November 2025Bayern München 6–2 SC FreiburgBundesliga
  • 25 January 2025SC Freiburg 1–2 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
  • 1 September 2024Bayern München 2–0 SC FreiburgBundesliga
  • 1 March 2024SC Freiburg 2–2 Bayern MunichBundesliga
  • 8 October 2023Bayern Munich 3–0 SC FreiburgBundesliga

The full SC Freiburg vs Bayern München record →

Leading scorers: SC Freiburg and Bayern München

SC Freiburg

GoalsAssists

  • Y. Suzuki50
  • I. Matanović41

Bayern München

GoalsAssists

  • M. Olise63
  • H. Kane48
  • L. Díaz41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Bayern München won 3–1 at SC Freiburg. The model had made a win for Bayern München its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Dayot Upamecano 16' for Bayern München, Serge Gnabry 42' for Bayern München, Tom Bischof (own goal) 82' for SC Freiburg, Michael Olise 90+5' for Bayern München. On expected goals it finished 0.97–3.05.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave SC Freiburg a 50.6% chance to finish in the top four: 59.7% after a win, 50.0% after a draw, 46.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 46.5%, 4.1 points lower than before the match.

For Bayern München the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 64.2% going in: 68.6% after a win, 62.3% after a draw, 57.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 68.6%, 4.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.