Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Paris Saint Germain 2-0 Lyon.
Before kick-off the model made it 55% Paris Saint Germain, 24% draw, 21% Lyon — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Paris Saint Germain at 55%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 39M. SafonovG
- 2A. HakimiD
- 6I. ZabarnyiD
- 51W. PachoD
- 33W. Zaïre-EmeryD
- 87João NevesM
- 17VitinhaM
- 8Fabián RuizM
- 11M. AklioucheF
- 9Ferran TorresF
- 14D. DouéF
- 4BeraldoD
- 42D. BolyD
- 30L. ChevalierG
- 12L. DigneD
- 27Pedro FernándezM
- 22M. GodtsF
- 21L. HernándezD
- 24Senny MayuluM
- 47Quentin Ndjantou MbitchaF
- 1D. GreifG
- 13Z. AthekameD
- 20F. BacherD
- 19M. NiakhatéD
- 16AbnerD
- 6T. TessmannM
- 23T. MortonM
- 8C. TolissoM
- 7E. NuamahF
- 18K. MerahF
- 24J. DuranvilleF
- 99N. NarteyM
- 21R. KluivertD
- 26K. BoudacheF
- 2M. BidstrupM
- 40R. DescampsG
- 44A. HamdaniF
- 45R. HimbertF
- 85N. KamaraD
- 22Clinton MataD
Form going into Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon
Paris Saint Germain
Ligue 1
- W3-1away to Strasbourg17 October 2026
- W3-1Le Mans10 October 2026
Lyon
Ligue 1
- W2-1Nice18 October 2026
- L1-2away to Lens9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 23 |
| 5 | Lyon | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lyon vs Paris Saint Germain
Lyon and Paris Saint Germain have met 7 times in the records we hold, Paris Saint Germain has won 6 of them to Lyon's 1.
The record
Paris Saint Germain won the last one 2–0 on 26 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 18 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 27 goals, an average of 3.86 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 26 Oct 2026
Ligue 1Paris Saint Germain 2–0 Lyon - 19 Apr 2026
Ligue 1Paris Saint Germain 1–2 Lyon - 9 Nov 2025
Ligue 1Lyon 2–3 Paris Saint Germain - 23 Feb 2025
Ligue 1Lyon 2–3 Paris Saint Germain - 15 Dec 2024
Ligue 1Paris Saint Germain 3–1 Lyon - 25 May 2024
Coupe de FranceLyon 1–2 Paris Saint Germain - 21 Apr 2024
Ligue 1Paris Saint Germain 4–1 Lyon
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Paris Saint Germain's attack rates 57% above Lyon's, and Paris Saint Germain concede 22% fewer than Lyon. That gives Paris Saint Germain the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 0.94 | 0.86 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.48 | 0.67 |
Leading scorers: Paris Saint Germain and Lyon
Paris Saint Germain
GoalsAssists
- Ferran Torres41
- A. Hakimi32
Lyon
GoalsAssists
- E. Nuamah41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Paris Saint Germain beat Lyon 2–0. The model had made a win for Paris Saint Germain its most likely outcome, at 55%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Senny Mayulu 72' for Paris Saint Germain, Mika Godts 84' for Paris Saint Germain. On expected goals it finished 0.96–0.69.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Paris Saint Germain a 63.0% chance to finish top of the regular season: 67.7% after a win, 59.6% after a draw, 53.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 67.7%, 4.7 points higher than before the match.
For Lyon the question was the chance to finish in the top three, 28.3% going in: 38.2% after a win, 28.6% after a draw, 24.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.9%, 3.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.