Alverca vs Arouca Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Alverca 0-1 Arouca.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Alverca, 28% draw, 34% Arouca — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Alverca at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Alverca vs Arouca
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31Matheus MendesG
- 14S. BaseyaD
- 21Sergi GómezD
- 12I. JamesD
- 20Diogo Filipe Spencer MarquesM
- 35RayanM
- 6D. GuiM
- 55Francisco ChissumbaM
- 10ChiquinhoF
- 19D. CamaraF
- 22FigueiredoF
- 4Y. BojangD
- 7André VidigalF
- 26Matheus FrançaF
- 24E. JemideD
- 17S. MerhegF
- 11C. NuozziF
- 9Vivaldo SemedoF
- 93Zé RafaelM
- 2ZoubdiF
- 12I. de ArruabarrenaG
- 28Tiago EsgaioD
- 15Javi SánchezD
- 3José FontánD
- 18O. LebedenkoD
- 6E. van EeM
- 89Pedro SantosM
- 19A. TrezzaM
- 8T. FukuiM
- 7N. DjouahraM
- 17BarberoF
- 21Mateo FloresM
- 37Mario ClimentD
- 10Pablo GozálbezM
- 14Lee Hyun-JuM
- 24B. MansillaF
- 9F. MayuluF
- 4Diogo MonteiroD
- 23D. NandínF
- 5B. PopovićD
Form going into Alverca vs Arouca
Alverca
Primeira Liga
- W4-1away to Famalicao12 October 2026
- W1-0Rio Ave19 September 2026
Arouca
Primeira Liga
- W1-0Estrela11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Sporting CP19 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Alverca | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
| 5 | Arouca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Alverca vs Arouca
- 24 April 2026Alverca 2–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 14 December 2025Arouca 1–0 AlvercaPrimeira Liga
Leading scorers: Alverca and Arouca
Alverca
GoalsAssists
- Vivaldo Semedo30
Arouca
GoalsAssists
- Barbero50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Arouca won 1–0 at Alverca. The model had leaned towards a win for Alverca at 38% and given a win for Arouca 34%. The goal: Taichi Fukui 24' for Arouca. Sent off: Steven Baseya (Alverca) 6', André Vidigal (Alverca) 90+4'. On expected goals it finished 0.43–2.06.
How the call on Alverca v Arouca has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 35% / 27% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 28% / 34%: the biggest move is Arouca's chance of winning, down 4 points.
- Alverca win38%▲ +3
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Arouca win34%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.