Internacional vs Botafogo Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Internacional 3-0 Botafogo.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Internacional, 29% draw, 30% Botafogo — fair odds of 2.44, 3.45 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Internacional at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Internacional vs Botafogo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22KauanG
- 15Bruno GomesD
- 3G. MaripánD
- 18JuninhoD
- 6Matheus BahiaD
- 16RonaldoM
- 29Thiago MaiaM
- 35B. AguirreM
- 10Alan PatrickM
- 26A. BernabéiM
- 9AlerrandroF
- 49J. BezerraF
- 44Victor JoaoF
- 24Filipe Borba SirioG
- 7J. CarboneroF
- 8Bruno HenriqueM
- 17N. EliassonM
- 30CalebeM
- 43Henrique MenkeG
- 31AllexM
- 12Gabriel BatistaG
- 2VitinhoD
- 5N. FerraresiD
- 21MarçalD
- 13Alex TellesD
- 25AllanM
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 6C. MedinaM
- 10Álvaro MontoroM
- 11Matheus MartinsM
- 9Tiquinho SoaresF
- 91Domingos AndradeM
- 88EdenílsonM
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 34G. JustinoD
- 90DaniloF
- 4M. PonteD
- 17WarlesonG
- 22H. ZiyechM
- 29PaulinhoD
Form going into Internacional vs Botafogo
Internacional
Serie A
- L0-2away to Mirassol16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gremio11 October 2026
Botafogo
Serie A
- W1-0Chapecoense17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Coritiba12 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Internacional | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 38 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Botafogo vs Internacional
Botafogo and Internacional have met 7 times in the records we hold, they have won 3 each, with 1 drawn.
The record
Internacional won the last one 3–0 on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 |
| Internacional | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
Serie AInternacional 3–0 Botafogo - 25 Apr 2026
Serie ABotafogo 2–2 Internacional - 4 Oct 2025
Serie AInternacional 2–0 Botafogo - 11 May 2025
Serie ABotafogo 4–0 Internacional - 5 Dec 2024
Serie AInternacional 0–1 Botafogo - 20 Jul 2024
Serie ABotafogo 1–0 Internacional - 7 Dec 2023
Serie AInternacional 3–1 Botafogo
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Botafogo's attack rates 3% above Internacional's, and Internacional concede 8% fewer than Botafogo. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 0.80 | 1.22 |
| Internacional | 0.78 | 1.12 |
Leading scorers: Internacional and Botafogo
Internacional
GoalsAssists
- J. Carbonero74
Botafogo
GoalsAssists
- Danilo Santos102
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Internacional beat Botafogo 3–0. The model had made a win for Internacional its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Matheus Bahia 32' for Internacional, José Carlos Ferreira Júnior 42' for Internacional, Alexandro Bernabéi 66' for Internacional. On expected goals it finished 2.81–0.62.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Internacional a 44.7% chance to finish in the bottom four: 30.1% after a win, 49.0% after a draw, 60.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.1%, 14.6 points lower than before the match.
For Botafogo the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 2.2% going in: under 1% after a win, 1.6% after a draw, 3.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.7%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Internacional v Botafogo has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 43% / 28% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 41% / 29% / 30%: the biggest move is Internacional's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Internacional win41%▼ −2
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Botafogo win30%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.