24 October 2026, 22:30 UTC

Chapecoense vs Fluminense Serie A prediction & result

Arena Condá, Chapeco
Referee: Anderson Daronco, Brazil
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Chapecoense 2-1 Fluminense.

Before kick-off the model made it 25% Chapecoense, 25% draw, 50% Fluminense — fair odds of 4.00, 4.00 and 2.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Fluminense at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Chapecoense94%Draw6%Fluminense0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Yannick Bolasieassist: Giovanni Augusto
9'
30'
⚽Claudio Rodrigues Gomesassist: Hulk
Camilo Reijers de Oliveira
37'
🔁Maurício Garcezout: Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira
45'
⚽Giovanni Augustoassist: Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira
56'
Yago Felipe
57'
65'
🔁Wesley Natã de Freitas Pradoout: Riquelme Felipe·Silva de Almeida
65'
🔁Paulo Henrique Chagas de Limaout: Luciano Acosta
🔁Yannick Bolasieout: Kevin Ramírez
70'
🔁Yago Felipeout: Bruno Matias
70'
🔁João Pauloout: Rafael Thyere
73'
79'
🔁Hércules Pereira do Nascimentoout: Rodrigo Castillo
🔁Marcio Antonio de Sousa Juniorout: Fernando Augusto Pereira Bueno Júnior
83'
85'
🔁Hulkout: Germán Ezequiel Cano Recalde
85'
🔁Igor Rabelloout: Renê Rodrigues Martins
90+2'
Guilherme Arana

Match stats — Chapecoense vs Fluminense

26%Possession74%
6Shots16
3On target4
3Corners6
0.59xG1.44

Goals against chances

Chapecoense2 from 0.59 xGmore than the chances were worth
Fluminense1 from 1.44 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Chapecoense 4-2-3-1
  • 98AndersonG
  • 20Bruno TubarãoD
  • 3DomaD
  • 4João PauloD
  • 91Bruno PachecoD
  • 27CamiloM
  • 88Yago FelipeM
  • 7MarcinhoM
  • 10Giovanni AugustoM
  • 31GarcezM
  • 11Y. BolasieF
Substitutes
  • 80Miguel CarvalhoM
  • 16Bruno MatiasM
  • 19David AntunesM
  • 23DuduD
  • 12FernandoD
  • 22MaxM
  • 15Rafael ThyereD
  • 94K. RamírezF
  • 9Tulio Eduardo Silva De OliveiraF
Coach: Rafael Lacerda
Fluminense 4-2-3-1
  • 1FábioG
  • 23GugaD
  • 4IgnacioD
  • 21Igor RabelloD
  • 13Guilherme AranaD
  • 16NonatoM
  • 35HérculesM
  • 34Wesley NataM
  • 10PH GansoM
  • 90K. SernaM
  • 7HulkF
Substitutes
  • 19R. CastilloF
  • 22J. FreytesD
  • 94OtávioM
  • 6RenêD
  • 28RiquelmeF
  • 2Samuel XavierD
  • 3Thiago SilvaD
  • 98Vitor EudesG
  • 32L. AcostaM
Coach: Marcão

Form going into Chapecoense vs Fluminense

Chapecoense

Serie A

  • L0-1away to Botafogo17 October 2026

Fluminense

Serie A

  • L1-2Santos18 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Flamengo11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Chapecoense3449213370-3721
4Fluminense3416995542+1357

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Chapecoense vs Fluminense

Chapecoense and Fluminense have met 7 times in the records we hold, Fluminense has won 4 of them to Chapecoense's 1, with 2 drawn.

The record

Chapecoense won the last one 2–1 on 24 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Chapecoense124712
Fluminense421127

Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 24 Oct 2026
    Serie A    Chapecoense 2–1 Fluminense
  • 26 Apr 2026
    Serie A    Fluminense 2–1 Chapecoense
  • 10 Dec 2021
    Serie A    Fluminense 3–0 Chapecoense
  • 8 Sep 2021
    Serie A    Chapecoense 1–2 Fluminense
  • 26 Oct 2019
    Serie A    Fluminense 1–1 Chapecoense
  • 13 Jun 2019
    Serie A    Chapecoense 1–1 Fluminense
  • 24 Sep 2018
    Serie A    Chapecoense 1–2 Fluminense

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Fluminense's attack rates 55% above Chapecoense's, and Fluminense concede 38% fewer than Chapecoense. That gives Fluminense the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Chapecoense0.661.69
Fluminense1.021.04

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Chapecoense and Fluminense

Chapecoense

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 33 league goals as a side.

Fluminense

GoalsAssists

  • John Kennedy91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Chapecoense beat Fluminense 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Fluminense at 50% and given a win for Chapecoense 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Yannick Bolasie 9' for Chapecoense, Claudio Rodrigues Gomes 30' for Fluminense, Giovanni Augusto 56' for Chapecoense. On expected goals it finished 0.59–1.44.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fluminense a 48.2% chance to finish in the top four: 58.5% after a win, 39.3% after a draw, 30.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.3%, 17.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.