24 October 2026, 19:30 UTC

Mirassol vs Sao Paulo Serie A prediction & result

José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol
Referee: Lucas Casagrande, Brazil
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Mirassol 1-1 Sao Paulo.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Mirassol, 29% draw, 26% Sao Paulo — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published

Has the model earned this number?

Mirassol at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Rafael (OG)
7'
17'
Djhordney Ferreira
26'
Iago Amaral Borduchi
39'
⚽Pedro Limaassist: Damian Bobadilla
Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alve
61'
64'
🔁Lucas Mouraout: Gustavo Santana
64'
🔁Marcos Antonioout: Pablo Maia
🔁Neto Mouraout: Shaylon Kallyson Cardozo
67'
🔁Bruno Santos de Oliveiraout: Carlos Eduardo
67'
🔁Denilson Alves Borgesout: Wallisson
67'
Willian Estefani Machado
70'
🔁Alesson dos Santos Batistaout: Fernandinho
74'
77'
🔁Djhordney Ferreiraout: Pedro Ferreira
77'
🔁Iago Amaral Borduchiout: Wendell
🔁Carlos Eduardo de Oliveira Alveout: Jose Roberto
78'
Wallisson
83'
87'
🔁Damian Bobadillaout: Victor Sá

Match stats — Mirassol vs Sao Paulo

45%Possession55%
18Shots14
4On target3
7Corners7
1.32xG1.13

Goals against chances

Mirassol1 from 1.32 xGabout what the chances were worth
Sao Paulo1 from 1.13 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Mirassol 4-2-3-1
  • 22WalterG
  • 32Igor FormigaD
  • 34João VictorD
  • 3Willian MachadoD
  • 6ReinaldoD
  • 25Neto MouraM
  • 27DenilsonM
  • 95EdsonM
  • 33EduardoM
  • 77AlessonM
  • 30Bruno SantosF
Substitutes
  • 7ShaylonM
  • 99Zé RobertoF
  • 96Carlos EduardoF
  • 20Daniel BorgesD
  • 5JapaM
  • 19Gustavo SilvaM
  • 10ChicoM
  • 44GabrielD
  • 90ThomazellaG
Coach: Rafael Guanaes
Sao Paulo 3-4-2-1
  • 23RafaelG
  • 28NewtonD
  • 5R. ArboledaD
  • 54Osorio LuisD
  • 32Pedro LimaM
  • 48D. FerreiraM
  • 8Marcos AntônioM
  • 12IagoM
  • 7Lucas MouraM
  • 16D. BobadillaM
  • 10LucianoF
Substitutes
  • 35SabinoD
  • 31Carlos CoronelG
  • 43G. SantanaF
  • 46Pedro FerreiraM
  • 29Pablo MaiaM
  • 45Lucca Marques AlencarF
  • 18WendellD
  • 17André SilvaF
  • 49Ryan FranciscoF
Coach: Dorival Júnior

Form going into Mirassol vs Sao Paulo

Mirassol

Serie A

  • W2-0Internacional16 October 2026

Sao Paulo

Serie A

  • W1-0Vasco da Gama18 October 2026
  • W2-1Vitoria11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Mirassol351011143948-941
10Sao Paulo34128143939044

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Mirassol vs Sao Paulo

Mirassol and Sao Paulo have met 7 times in the records we hold, Mirassol has won 3 of them to Sao Paulo's 2, with 2 drawn.

The record

They drew 1–1 at Mirassol on 24 Oct 2026.

ClubWDLGFGA
Mirassol322117
Sao Paulo223711

Between them these 7 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 2.57 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 24 Oct 2026
    Serie A    Mirassol 1–1 Sao Paulo
  • 26 Apr 2026
    Serie A    Sao Paulo 1–0 Mirassol
  • 11 Jan 2026
    Paulista - A1    Mirassol 3–0 Sao Paulo
  • 19 Oct 2025
    Serie A    Mirassol 3–0 Sao Paulo
  • 24 May 2025
    Serie A    Sao Paulo 0–2 Mirassol
  • 5 Feb 2025
    Paulista - A1    Sao Paulo 4–1 Mirassol
  • 23 Jan 2024
    Paulista - A1    Mirassol 1–1 Sao Paulo

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Mirassol's attack rates 7% above Sao Paulo's, and Sao Paulo concede 4% fewer than Mirassol. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Mirassol0.791.09
Sao Paulo0.741.05

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Mirassol and Sao Paulo

Mirassol

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 39 league goals as a side.

Sao Paulo

GoalsAssists

  • J. Calleri102
  • Luciano91

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Mirassol and Sao Paulo drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Mirassol at 45% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Rafael (own goal) 7' for Mirassol, Pedro Lima 39' for Sao Paulo. On expected goals it finished 1.32–1.13.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mirassol a 8.4% chance to finish in the bottom four: 3.0% after a win, 10.4% after a draw, 15.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 10.4%, 2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.