San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: San Lorenzo 0-0 Newell's Old Boys.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% San Lorenzo, 36% draw, 29% Newell's Old Boys — fair odds of 2.86, 2.78 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 0-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
the draw at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 25J. DevecchiG
- 16G. CorujoD
- 2D. ArboledaD
- 19E. AmorD
- 24N. TripichioM
- 62G. AlassiaM
- 10Facundo GulliM
- 3T. RodríguezM
- 38F. FaríasM
- 9A. CuelloF
- 29R. AuzmendiF
- 27M. RíoM
- 39Elián Uriel OjedaM
- 14A. LadstatterF
- 8M. InsaurraldeM
- 36Daniel HerreraD
- 32E. HerreraD
- 35A. CordobaD
- 34Maximo Atrio
- 30O. AriasD
- 30J. ReinattiG
- 6M. OrtegaD
- 25B. CabreraD
- 16L. CarrizoD
- 28J. RussoD
- 5L. RegiardoM
- 19J. MattarM
- 7W. MazzanttiM
- 20Facundo GauchM
- 32S. SolariM
- 9M. CóccaroF
- 24F. EscobarD
- 23N. GoiteaD
- 27L. GómezM
- 4A. MonteroM
- 33W. NúñezF
- 99I. RamírezF
- 39T. RiosF
- 22O. SalomónD
- 36Francisco ScarpeccioF
Form going into San Lorenzo vs Newell's Old Boys
San Lorenzo
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W2-1away to Estudiantes La Plata18 October 2026
- W1-0Deportivo Riestra11 October 2026
Newell's Old Boys
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W2-1Central Cordoba de Santiago19 October 2026
- L0-1away to Gimnasia Mendoza12 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 19 |
| 6 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Newell's Old Boys vs San Lorenzo
Newell's Old Boys and San Lorenzo have met 7 times in the records we hold, Newell's Old Boys has won 2 of them to San Lorenzo's 0, with 5 drawn.
The record
They drew 0–0 at San Lorenzo on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newell's Old Boys | 2 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| San Lorenzo | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 10 goals, an average of 1.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaSan Lorenzo 0–0 Newell's Old Boys - 12 Apr 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaNewell's Old Boys 0–0 San Lorenzo - 27 Jul 2024
Liga Profesional ArgentinaSan Lorenzo 1–1 Newell's Old Boys - 4 Mar 2024
Copa de la Liga ProfesionalNewell's Old Boys 2–2 San Lorenzo - 7 Oct 2023
Copa de la Liga ProfesionalSan Lorenzo 0–3 Newell's Old Boys - 20 Mar 2023
Liga Profesional ArgentinaNewell's Old Boys 1–0 San Lorenzo - 9 Jun 2022
Liga Profesional ArgentinaNewell's Old Boys 0–0 San Lorenzo
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Newell's Old Boys' attack rates 26% above San Lorenzo's, and San Lorenzo concede 3% fewer than Newell's Old Boys. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Newell's Old Boys | 0.72 | 1.18 |
| San Lorenzo | 0.57 | 1.15 |
Leading scorers: San Lorenzo and Newell's Old Boys
San Lorenzo
GoalsAssists
- R. Auzmendi72
Newell's Old Boys
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
San Lorenzo and Newell's Old Boys drew 0–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a draw at 36%. On expected goals it finished 0.57–1.03.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave San Lorenzo a 35.4% chance to finish in the top eight: 61.3% after a win, 26.1% after a draw, 10.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 26.1%, 9.3 points lower than before the match.
For Newell's Old Boys the question was the chance to finish in the top eight: 99.5% after a win, 92.8% after a draw, 71.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 92.8%.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on San Lorenzo v Newell's Old Boys has moved
First published on 11 Oct at 33% / 36% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 35% / 36% / 29%: the biggest move is San Lorenzo's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- San Lorenzo win35%▲ +2
- Draw36%=
- Newell's Old Boys win29%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.