26 October 2026, 19:30 UTC

FC Andorra vs Burgos Segunda División prediction & result

Estadi de la FAF, Encamp
Referee: Miranda Bolano Daniel
Full time2 – 3

Final score: FC Andorra 2-3 Burgos.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% FC Andorra, 31% draw, 34% Burgos — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Andorra at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Andorra0%Draw3%Burgos97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
⚽Jon Karrikaburu
⚽Lautaro De León
14'
17'
⚽Oier Luengo Redondoassist: Javier Llabrés Exposito
Moró Sidibe
25'
28'
⚽Curro (pen)
39'
🔁Jon Karrikaburuout: Álex Forés
⚽Jordi Canoassist: Lautaro De León
43'
🔁Marc Bombardo Poyatoout: Juan Sebastián Serrano
56'
🔁Jordi Canoout: Diego Díaz
56'
67'
🔁Pablo Galdamesout: José Gragera
67'
🔁Alberto Dadieout: Victor Mollejo
🔁Moró Sidibeout: Nacho Quintana
74'
🔁Lautaro De Leónout: Julian Rijkhoff
74'
81'
🔁Javier Llabrés Expositoout: Ignasi Vilarrasa Palacios
81'
🔁Brais Martínezout: Sergio González
🔁Marti Vila Garciaout: Alejandro Calvo Mata
85'
88'
Unai Vencedor

Match stats — FC Andorra vs Burgos

73%Possession27%
20Shots13
11On target7
7Corners3
1.7xG1.56

Goals against chances

FC Andorra2 from 1.70 xGabout what the chances were worth
Burgos3 from 1.56 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Andorra 4-3-3
  • 25Jesús OwonoG
  • 17T. CarriqueD
  • 3L. SpatzD
  • 5Marc BombardóD
  • 20Martí VilàD
  • 16R. SchneiderM
  • 14Sergio MolinaM
  • 8E. AkmanM
  • 15Jordi CanoF
  • 11L. de LeónF
  • 21Moró SidibeF
Substitutes
  • 6Hugo SolozábalM
  • 29Hugo LópezF
  • 27S. GolubovicF
  • 22D. DiazM
  • 7Álex CalvoF
  • 28T. OlmedoM
  • 19Nacho QuintanaM
  • 1N. RattiG
  • 9Julian Dean RijkhoffF
Coach: Carles Manso
Burgos 4-4-2
  • 13Ander CanteroG
  • 2ÁlexD
  • 15Oier LuengoD
  • 8GregoD
  • 22Brais MartínezD
  • 23Alberto DadieM
  • 12Unai VencedorM
  • 4P. GaldamesM
  • 19Javi LlabrésM
  • 16Curro SánchezF
  • 7Jon KarrikaburuF
Substitutes
  • 21Fermin GarciaF
  • 6Sergio GonzálezD
  • 20José GrageraM
  • 18Saúl del CerroM
  • 3Ignasi VilarrasaD
  • 31Irian RibasF
  • 11Víctor MollejoF
  • 36I. MartinezD
  • 1Bruno IribarneG
Coach: Sergio Francisco

Form going into FC Andorra vs Burgos

FC Andorra

Segunda División

  • L0-2away to Girona18 October 2026
  • W1-0Castellón11 October 2026

Burgos

Segunda División

  • W1-0Sabadell18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Segunda División table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19FC Andorra133281824-611
4Burgos147342017+324

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Andorra vs Burgos

  • 31 May 2026Burgos 1–0 FC AndorraSegunda División
  • 31 August 2025FC Andorra 2–1 BurgosSegunda División
  • 18 May 2024FC Andorra 1–0 BurgosSegunda División
  • 25 November 2023Burgos 0–0 FC AndorraSegunda División
  • 15 January 2023Burgos 2–1 FC AndorraSegunda División
  • 12 October 2022FC Andorra 0–1 BurgosSegunda División

Leading scorers: FC Andorra and Burgos

FC Andorra

GoalsAssists

  • Jordi Cano52

Burgos

GoalsAssists

  • Álex Forés41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Burgos won 3–2 at FC Andorra. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Andorra at 35% and given a win for Burgos 34%. The goals: Jon Karrikaburu 10' for Burgos, Lautaro De León 14' for FC Andorra, Oier Luengo Redondo 17' for Burgos, Curro (penalty) 28' for Burgos, Jordi Cano 43' for FC Andorra. On expected goals it finished 1.70–1.56.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Andorra a 12.4% chance to finish in the bottom four: 8.5% after a win, 12.6% after a draw, 15.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 15.1%, 2.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Segunda División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.