QPR vs Burnley Championship prediction & result
Final score: QPR 1-1 Burnley.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% QPR, 24% draw, 22% Burnley — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
QPR at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — QPR vs Burnley
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1P. CharlesG
- 2K. AdamsonD
- 3J. DunneD
- 5R. EdwardsD
- 19D. CirkinD
- 20H. ValeM
- 40J. VaraneM
- 18G. KamaraM
- 14K. SaitoM
- 22R. KoneF
- 11P. SmythF
- 4L. MorrisonD
- 25Justin Patrick Nnamdi ObikwuF
- 13C. WardG
- 17K. PokuM
- 23I. AlemayehuM
- 10I. ChairM
- 7K. DembéléM
- 12B. KemperD
- 26Rayan Jawad KolliF
- 37G. CoudertG
- 2K. WalkerD
- 18H. EkdalD
- 44IgorD
- 23Lucas PiresD
- 29J. LaurentM
- 5R. HatateM
- 17A. HountondjiM
- 10M. EdwardsM
- 19L. RamazaniM
- 9J. VardyF
- 3Max AlleyneD
- 34J. BanelF
- 24J. CullenM
- 8U. RaghouberM
- 21A. RamseyM
- 14C. RobertsD
- 22O. SonneD
- 15A. AhmedhodžićD
- 1M. WeißG
Form going into QPR vs Burnley
QPR
Championship
- L1-4away to Southampton31 October 2026
- W5-0Swansea24 October 2026
- L0-3away to Birmingham17 October 2026
Burnley
Championship
- D0-0Portsmouth31 October 2026
- L1-4away to Lincoln24 October 2026
- L1-2Wolves16 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 18 | +6 | 24 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Burnley vs QPR
Burnley and QPR have met 7 times in the records we hold, Burnley has won 3 of them to QPR's 1, with 3 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at QPR on 3 Nov 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 3 |
| QPR | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 3 Nov 2026
ChampionshipQPR 1–1 Burnley - 26 Apr 2025
ChampionshipQPR 0–5 Burnley - 26 Oct 2024
ChampionshipBurnley 0–0 QPR - 22 Apr 2023
ChampionshipBurnley 1–2 QPR - 11 Dec 2022
ChampionshipQPR 0–3 Burnley - 2 May 2016
ChampionshipBurnley 1–0 QPR - 12 Dec 2015
ChampionshipQPR 0–0 Burnley
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, the two attacks rate almost level, and QPR concede 25% fewer than Burnley. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: QPR and Burnley
QPR
GoalsAssists
- R. Kone51
Burnley
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 22 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
QPR and Burnley drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for QPR at 54% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Largie Ramazani 38' for Burnley, Jonathan Varane 65' for QPR. On expected goals it finished 1.76–0.18.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Burnley a 39.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 30.4% after a win, 38.3% after a draw, 42.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 38.3%, 0.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on QPR v Burnley has moved
First published on 20 Oct at 34% / 28% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 54% / 24% / 22%: the biggest move is QPR's chance of winning, up 20 points.
- QPR win54%▲ +20
- Draw24%▼ −4
- Burnley win22%▼ −16
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.