Watford vs Lincoln Championship prediction & result
Final score: Watford 1-0 Lincoln.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Watford, 28% draw, 36% Lincoln — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Watford at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Watford vs Lincoln
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1F. RavagliaG
- 23O. TraoréD
- 6M. PollockD
- 4K. KebenD
- 16M. BolaD
- 39E. KayembeM
- 5H. KyprianouM
- 7O. MaammaM
- 17Iker BravoM
- 45S. MavididiM
- 10M. BoaduF
- 26D. BachmannG
- 15K. DiattaM
- 20M. DoumbiaF
- 9L. KjerrumgaardF
- 29Branimir MlačićD
- 21Amin NabizadaF
- 22M. PayeroM
- 11R. VataF
- 33J. ZemuraD
- 1G. WickensG
- 25D. ElereweD
- 15S. BradleyD
- 4A. CoubișD
- 33D. OyegokeM
- 26Y. KonakM
- 8T. BaylissM
- 20C. ElderM
- 27C. OgbeneM
- 18B. HouseM
- 34F. DraperF
- 17R. StreetF
- 3A. ReachM
- 19I. OlaofeF
- 22T. HamerD
- 7R. HackettM
- 46J. GauciG
- 6R. TowlerD
- 24I. VarfolomeevM
- 16D. JefferiesM
Form going into Watford vs Lincoln
Watford
Championship
- L2-3away to Norwich31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Wolves24 October 2026
- W2-0Charlton17 October 2026
Lincoln
Championship
- L1-3Birmingham31 October 2026
- W4-1Burnley24 October 2026
- D2-2away to Millwall17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 15 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Watford beat Lincoln 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Watford at 36%. The goal: Stephy Mavididi 46' for Watford. On expected goals it finished 0.69–0.81.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Watford a 48.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 41.1% after a win, 50.7% after a draw, 54.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.1%, 7.4 points lower than before the match.
For Lincoln the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 11.1% going in: 7.5% after a win, 10.9% after a draw, 13.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.7%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Watford v Lincoln has moved
First published on 20 Oct at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 36% / 28% / 36%: the biggest move is Lincoln's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Watford win36%▼ −1
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Lincoln win36%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.