31 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Fritz Walter Stadion, Kaiserslautern
Referee: Felix Bickel
Full time0 – 3

Final score: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0-3 Hertha BSC.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 30% draw, 31% Hertha BSC — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

1. FC Kaiserslautern at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

1. FC Kaiserslautern0%Draw1%Hertha BSC99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
⚽Sebastian Gronningassist: Jón Dagur Þórsteinsson
Maxwell Gyamfi
32'
38'
Kevin Sessa
52'
⚽Sebastian Gronningassist: Mads Valentin Pedersen
🔁Miloš Lukovićout: Erencan Yardimci
58'
🔁Thierry Fidjeu Tazemetaout: Ivan Prtajin
58'
59'
⚽Oluwaseun Adewumiassist: Mads Valentin Pedersen
62'
Linus Jasper Gechter
66'
🔁Mads Valentin Pedersenout: Deyovaisio Zeefuik
🔁Mario Sauerout: Marlon Ritter
75'
76'
🔁Sebastian Gronningout: Jan Luca Schuler
76'
🔁Oluwaseun Adewumiout: Farid Alfa-Ruprecht
🔁Naatan Skyttäout: Dion Hofmeister
84'
86'
🔁Jón Dagur Þórsteinssonout: Selim Telib
86'
🔁Kevin Sessaout: Pascal Klemens

Match stats — 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC

53%Possession47%
17Shots14
5On target8
3Corners3
1.28xG2.9

Goals against chances

1. FC Kaiserslautern0 from 1.28 xGless than the chances were worth
Hertha BSC3 from 2.90 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

1. FC Kaiserslautern 3-1-4-2
  • 1J. KrahlG
  • 33J. ElvediD
  • 4M. GyamfiD
  • 3A. MurphyD
  • 37Leon RobinsonM
  • 26P. JolyM
  • 15N. SkyttäM
  • 21M. SauerM
  • 22Mika HaasM
  • 45M. LukovićF
  • 39T. Fidjeu-TazemetaF
Substitutes
  • 20M. BerishaF
  • 44D. HofmeisterM
  • 6F. KunzeM
  • 9I. PrtajinF
  • 7M. RitterM
  • 17E. YardımcıF
  • 34Y. OnohiolG
  • 18Titus Ole HenselerM
  • 30Samet AcarD
Coach: T. Lieberknecht
Hertha BSC 4-2-3-1
  • 35M. GersbeckG
  • 2J. EitschbergerD
  • 44L. GechterD
  • 27N. KolbeD
  • 22M. PedersenD
  • 30P. SeguinM
  • 8K. SessaM
  • 17S. GrønningM
  • 23J. ÞorsteinssonM
  • 7J. BrekaloM
  • 19O. AdewumiF
Substitutes
  • 42D. ZeefuikD
  • 47Selim TelibM
  • 18L. SchulerF
  • 41P. KlemensD
  • 34M. GrotheD
  • 33S. GouramM
  • 43T. GollerG
  • 29J. DialloD
  • 20Farid Alfa-RuprechtF
Coach: S. Leitl

Form going into 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC

1. FC Kaiserslautern

2. Bundesliga

  • W1-0away to 1. FC Nürnberg24 October 2026
  • W2-0VfL Bochum17 October 2026
  • D0-0away to 1. FC Heidenheim9 October 2026

Hertha BSC

2. Bundesliga

  • W1-0Arminia Bielefeld24 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Holstein Kiel16 October 2026
  • W2-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
31. FC Kaiserslautern11632107+321
1Hertha BSC111010259+1631

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Hertha BSC

  • 11 April 2026Hertha BSC 0–1 1. FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
  • 2 December 2025Hertha BSC 6–1 1. FC KaiserslauternDFB Pokal
  • 8 November 20251. FC Kaiserslautern 0–1 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
  • 8 February 2025Hertha BSC 0–1 1. FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga
  • 31 August 20241. FC Kaiserslautern 3–4 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
  • 11 May 2024Hertha Berlin 3–1 FC Kaiserslautern2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: 1. FC Kaiserslautern and Hertha BSC

1. FC Kaiserslautern

No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Hertha BSC

GoalsAssists

  • J. Brekalo55
  • O. Adewumi50
  • S. Grønning41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Hertha BSC won 3–0 at 1. FC Kaiserslautern. The model had leaned towards a win for 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 39% and given a win for Hertha BSC 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Sebastian Gronning 17' for Hertha BSC, Sebastian Gronning 52' for Hertha BSC, Oluwaseun Adewumi 59' for Hertha BSC. On expected goals it finished 1.28–2.90.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 23.9% chance to finish in the top two: 29.0% after a win, 22.2% after a draw, 17.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.5%, 6.4 points lower than before the match.

For Hertha BSC the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 47.8% going in: 55.8% after a win, 47.1% after a draw, 42.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 55.8%, 8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on 1. FC Kaiserslautern v Hertha BSC has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 36% / 30% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 39% / 30% / 31%: the biggest move is 1. FC Kaiserslautern's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. 1. FC Kaiserslautern win39%▲ +3
  2. Draw30%=
  3. Hertha BSC win31%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.