1 November 2026, 12:30 UTC

SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer
Referee: Lars Erbst
Full time1 – 0

Final score: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0 Holstein Kiel.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 28% draw, 34% Holstein Kiel — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

SpVgg Greuther Fürth96%Draw4%Holstein Kiel0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
Kasper Davidsen
45'
🔁Jonas Torrissen Therkelsenout: Gyan de Regt
45'
🔁Leon Parduziout: John Tolkin
🔁Ole Pohlmannout: Aaron Keller
66'
🔁Omar Sillahout: Jordan Siebatcheu
72'
🔁Shinta Karl Appelkampout: Faton Ademi
72'
73'
Giorgi Kvilitaia
79'
🔁Giorgi Kvilitaiaout: Guillermo Balzi
🔁Paul Willout: Dennis Srbeny
85'
🔁Jannik Dehmout: Lukas Reich
85'
⚽Aaron Kellerassist: Dennis Srbeny
87'
89'
🔁Jonas Meffertout: Faride·Alidou

Match stats — SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel

47%Possession53%
10Shots14
2On target4
9Corners5
0.79xG1.25

Goals against chances

SpVgg Greuther Fürth1 from 0.79 xGabout what the chances were worth
Holstein Kiel0 from 1.25 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-2-3-1
  • 1Florian HellsternG
  • 23J. DehmD
  • 22J. HeuerD
  • 34Hendry Aron BlankD
  • 27G. ItterD
  • 6S. BanséM
  • 13P. WillM
  • 30F. KlausM
  • 8S. AppelkampM
  • 10Ole PohlmannM
  • 42O. SillahF
Substitutes
  • 2Lukas ReichD
  • 7D. SrbenyF
  • 9J. SiebatcheuF
  • 45Olgherto BalliuM
  • 28D. ArifiM
  • 37F. AdemiM
  • 11A. KellerM
  • 29K. KeresztesD
  • 43Silas Joel PrüfrockG
Coach: H. Vogel
Holstein Kiel 4-4-2
  • 1T. WeinerG
  • 32H. SekineD
  • 5N. MadsenD
  • 13I. NekićD
  • 40Leon ParduziD
  • 20A. KaprálikM
  • 28J. MeffertM
  • 15K. DavidsenM
  • 10J. TherkelsenM
  • 9G. KvilitaiaF
  • 19P. HarresF
Substitutes
  • 11G. de RegtF
  • 17F. AlidouF
  • 8G. BalziM
  • 16A. KelatiM
  • 41Lio RothenhagenG
  • 4S. SchonlauD
  • 47J. TolkinD
  • 27I. UgohM
  • 26D. ZecD
Coach: T. Walter

Form going into SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

2. Bundesliga

  • L0-3away to VfL Osnabrück25 October 2026
  • W2-0Eintracht Braunschweig17 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Hertha BSC11 October 2026

Holstein Kiel

2. Bundesliga

  • W3-0Dynamo Dresden25 October 2026
  • D0-0Hertha BSC16 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Eintracht Braunschweig9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10SpVgg Greuther Fürth113351319-612
18Holstein Kiel111551114-38

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel

  • 31 January 2026Holstein Kiel 1–2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
  • 24 August 2025SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0–2 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
  • 28 January 2024SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
  • 5 August 2023Holstein Kiel 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
  • 28 January 2023Holstein Kiel 2–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
  • 16 July 2022SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–2 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

GoalsAssists

  • F. Klaus71

Holstein Kiel

GoalsAssists

  • P. Harres53

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Holstein Kiel 1–0. The model had made a win for SpVgg Greuther Fürth its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Aaron Keller 87' for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. On expected goals it finished 0.79–1.25.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 15.8% chance to finish in the bottom two: 11.6% after a win, 16.1% after a draw, 19.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.6%, 4.2 points lower than before the match.

For Holstein Kiel the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 14.0% going in: 9.5% after a win, 14.8% after a draw, 16.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 16.4%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on SpVgg Greuther Fürth v Holstein Kiel has moved

First published on 18 Oct at 43% / 28% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 28% / 34%: the biggest move is SpVgg Greuther Fürth's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. SpVgg Greuther Fürth win38%▼ −5
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Holstein Kiel win34%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.