Amarante vs FC Porto B Segunda Liga prediction & result
Final score: Amarante 2-1 FC Porto B.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Amarante, 27% draw, 39% FC Porto B — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
FC Porto B at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Amarante vs FC Porto B
Line-ups
- 65Diogo FigueiredoG
- 3Feliciano MendesD
- 4João FilipeD
- 15Rodrigo BeirãoD
- 20Luís MachadoF
- 85Nito GomesD
- 8TokinhoM
- 5Joao RicardoF
- 7L. FerreiraF
- 14A. IdacheF
- 78Simão SilvaM
- 91Rudi AlmeidaF
- 88Rúben AlvesF
- 1Rafael FloresG
- 36Ian CustódioD
- 6Rodrigo GuedesM
- 26A. ZangreM
- 28Diogo CostaD
- 12lawrenceF
- 23K. IkugarF
- 50J. AfonsoG
- 76DinisD
- 64Luís GomesD
- 93Tiago FerreiraD
- 55Y. PereiraD
- 58T. SilvaM
- 56KauêM
- 57Duarte CunhaF
- 66Bernardo LimaM
- 97Gabriel VeronF
- 53E. FerreiraF
- 47Cardoso VarelaF
- 91Gonçalo RibeiroG
- 82Gonçalo Lemos OliveiraM
- 70Eirik GranaasM
- 61Domingos MuxitoF
- 84Martim CunhaD
- 54António RibeiroD
- 41G. SilvaG
- 89Mateus MideF
Form going into Amarante vs FC Porto B
Amarante
Segunda Liga
- L0-1away to Torreense26 October 2026
- L1-2Portimonense10 October 2026
- D2-2União de Leiria13 September 2026
FC Porto B
Segunda Liga
- D1-1União de Leiria25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Leixoes10 October 2026
- D2-2Vizela14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Amarante | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 | FC Porto B | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Amarante and FC Porto B
Amarante
GoalsAssists
- Gonçalo Cunha10
FC Porto B
No player in Segunda Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Amarante beat FC Porto B 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Porto B at 39% and given a win for Amarante 34%. The goals: Leandro Ferreira 21' for Amarante, Dinis 38' for FC Porto B, Rudi Almeida 90+1' for Amarante.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Amarante a 66.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 58.8% after a win, 67.9% after a draw, 72.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.8%, 7.5 points lower than before the match.
For FC Porto B the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 9.3% going in: 6.5% after a win, 9.3% after a draw, 11.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.8%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Amarante v FC Porto B has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 36% / 26% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 34% / 27% / 39%: the biggest move is Amarante's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Amarante win34%▼ −2
- Draw27%▲ +1
- FC Porto B win39%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.