31 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Darmstadt
Referee: Lukas Benen
Full time1 – 1

Final score: SV Darmstadt 98 1-1 1. FC Magdeburg.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% SV Darmstadt 98, 24% draw, 47% 1. FC Magdeburg — fair odds of 3.45, 4.17 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

1. FC Magdeburg at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

SV Darmstadt 984%Draw90%1. FC Magdeburg6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
⚽Tobias Müller
⚽Milan Smitassist: Marco Richter
37'
45+2'
Roko Simic
Raoul Petretta
45+2'
45+3'
Pierre Nadjombe
45'
🔁Pierre Nadjombeout: Herbert Bockhorn
🔁Patric Pfeifferout: Aleksandar Vukotić
53'
🔁Fynn-Luca Lakenmacherout: Lee Ho-Jae
63'
Marco Richter
64'
66'
Garcia MacNulty
70'
🔁Roko Simicout: Felipe Chávez
82'
🔁Luka Hyryläinenout: Kevin Manthey
82'
🔁Emmanuel Iyohaout: Magnus Elias Walther Baars
🔁Marco Richterout: Lars Kehl
87'
🔁Milan Smitout: Lance Duijvestijn
87'
90'
🔁Barış Atikout: Richmond Tachie
90+3'
Falko Michel

Match stats — SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg

31%Possession69%
15Shots12
3On target2
7Corners5
1.3xG0.83

Goals against chances

SV Darmstadt 981 from 1.30 xGabout what the chances were worth
1. FC Magdeburg1 from 0.83 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

SV Darmstadt 98 4-4-2
  • 1M. SchuhenG
  • 25W. MikelbrencisD
  • 6P. PfeifferD
  • 49Y. LührsD
  • 18R. PetrettaD
  • 5M. RichterM
  • 17K. KlefischM
  • 16H. AkiyamaM
  • 7N. WeißhauptM
  • 19F. LakenmacherF
  • 36M. SmitF
Substitutes
  • 26M. BaderD
  • 30A. BrunstG
  • 41L. DuijvestijnM
  • 11I. El KadiriF
  • 22L. KehlM
  • 3F. KleinhanslD
  • 28C. LannertD
  • 9Lee Ho-JaeF
  • 20A. VukotićD
Coach: F. Kohfeldt
1. FC Magdeburg 4-3-3
  • 1D. ReimannG
  • 28P. NadjombeD
  • 5T. MüllerD
  • 3A. MacNultyD
  • 17A. NollenbergerD
  • 26T. MüselM
  • 38L. HyryläinenM
  • 21F. MichelM
  • 8E. IyohaF
  • 9R. ŠimićF
  • 23B. AtikF
Substitutes
  • 35Magnus Elias BaarsF
  • 7H. BockhornD
  • 11F. ChávezM
  • 15D. HeberD
  • 6P. JaeckelD
  • 30N. KruthG
  • 20K. MantheyF
  • 33Leon MergnerM
  • 29R. TachieF
Coach: P. Sander

Form going into SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg

SV Darmstadt 98

2. Bundesliga

  • D0-0FC St. Pauli23 October 2026
  • L0-4away to Karlsruher SC18 October 2026
  • W3-1Energie Cottbus10 October 2026

1. FC Magdeburg

2. Bundesliga

  • W6-1Karlsruher SC24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Dynamo Dresden18 October 2026
  • W3-0Hannover 9610 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17SV Darmstadt 9811236921-129
41. FC Magdeburg116232514+1120

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg

  • 13 March 20261. FC Magdeburg 1–1 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
  • 19 October 2025SV Darmstadt 98 0–0 1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
  • 2 March 20251. FC Magdeburg 4–1 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga
  • 28 September 2024SV Darmstadt 98 1–2 1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
  • 19 May 2023SV Darmstadt 98 1–0 FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
  • 10 November 2022FC Magdeburg 0–1 SV Darmstadt 982. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg

SV Darmstadt 98

No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

1. FC Magdeburg

GoalsAssists

  • E. Iyoha60
  • M. Żukowski60

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for 1. FC Magdeburg at 47% and given a draw 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Tobias Müller 14' for 1. FC Magdeburg, Milan Smit 37' for SV Darmstadt 98. On expected goals it finished 1.30–0.83.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave SV Darmstadt 98 a 35.5% chance to finish in the bottom two: 26.6% after a win, 36.2% after a draw, 39.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 36.2%, 0.7 points higher than before the match.

For 1. FC Magdeburg the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 18.9% going in: 22.2% after a win, 17.2% after a draw, 14.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 17.2%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on SV Darmstadt 98 v 1. FC Magdeburg has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 34% / 25% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 29% / 24% / 47%: the biggest move is 1. FC Magdeburg's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. SV Darmstadt 98 win29%▼ −5
  2. Draw24%▼ −1
  3. 1. FC Magdeburg win47%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.