31 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

VfL Wolfsburg vs VfL Osnabrück 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Volkswagen Arena, Wolfsburg
Referee: Konrad Oldhafer
Full time2 – 0

Final score: VfL Wolfsburg 2-0 VfL Osnabrück.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% VfL Wolfsburg, 20% draw, 22% VfL Osnabrück — fair odds of 1.72, 5.00 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

VfL Wolfsburg at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

VfL Wolfsburg99%Draw1%VfL Osnabrück0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Fabian Reese
30'
35'
Jannik Müller
Muhammed Damar
44'
⚽Muhammed Damarassist: Fabian Reese
49'
63'
🔁Bjarke Jacobsenout: Ismail Badjie
63'
🔁Leonhard Luis Munstout: Leon Maximilian Flach
🔁Muhammed Damarout: Kento Shiogai
69'
75'
🔁Jonathan Gómezout: Luca Raimund
76'
🔁Daniel-Kofi Kyerehout: Bernd Riesselmann
🔁Robert Glatzelout: Bence Dárdai
80'
🔁Alexander Bernhardssonout: Alessio Besio
80'
🔁Maximilian Arnoldout: Yannick Gerhardt
85'
89'
🔁Robin Meißnerout: Joel Abu Hanna

Match stats — VfL Wolfsburg vs VfL Osnabrück

64%Possession36%
31Shots13
7On target4
9Corners3
2.05xG1.18

Goals against chances

VfL Wolfsburg2 from 2.05 xGabout what the chances were worth
VfL Osnabrück0 from 1.18 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

VfL Wolfsburg 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. WellenreutherG
  • 26S. KumbediD
  • 6H. WahlD
  • 33CleitonD
  • 21J. MæhleD
  • 27M. ArnoldM
  • 5Vinicius SouzaM
  • 17A. BernhardssonM
  • 20M. DamarM
  • 11F. ReeseM
  • 19R. GlatzelF
Substitutes
  • 8Bence DárdaiM
  • 7K. ShiogaiF
  • 2K. FischerD
  • 37E. RexhbeçajM
  • 31Y. GerhardtM
  • 18J. AdjeteyD
  • 30J. ZielińskiG
  • 22M. AngelyD
  • 23A. BesioF
Coach: Tobias Strobl
VfL Osnabrück 3-4-2-1
  • 32J. KrumreyG
  • 27R. FabinskiD
  • 24J. MüllerD
  • 25N. WiemannD
  • 28K. FaberM
  • 21A. BeckM
  • 15B. JacobsenM
  • 42J. GómezM
  • 11R. MeißnerM
  • 8L. MünstM
  • 7D. KyerehF
Substitutes
  • 10I. BadjieM
  • 20T. JanottaD
  • 31P. KammerbauerM
  • 17L. RaimundF
  • 22B. RiesselmannF
  • 1N. SauterG
  • 26F. WagnerM
  • 4J. Abu HannaD
  • 18L. FlachM
Coach: T. Schultz

Form going into VfL Wolfsburg vs VfL Osnabrück

VfL Wolfsburg

2. Bundesliga

  • D1-1away to VfL Bochum23 October 2026
  • W3-11. FC Heidenheim17 October 2026
  • D4-4away to 1. FC Nürnberg10 October 2026

VfL Osnabrück

2. Bundesliga

  • W3-0SpVgg Greuther Fürth25 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Arminia Bielefeld18 October 2026
  • D1-1Dynamo Dresden10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5VfL Wolfsburg115422616+1019
14VfL Osnabrück113261418-411

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: VfL Wolfsburg and VfL Osnabrück

VfL Wolfsburg

GoalsAssists

  • F. Reese57
  • R. Glatzel51
  • A. Bernhardsson43

VfL Osnabrück

GoalsAssists

  • R. Meißner41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

VfL Wolfsburg beat VfL Osnabrück 2–0. The model had made a win for VfL Wolfsburg its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Fabian Reese 30' for VfL Wolfsburg, Muhammed Damar 49' for VfL Wolfsburg. On expected goals it finished 2.05–1.18.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave VfL Wolfsburg a 38.1% chance to finish in the top two: 41.3% after a win, 35.1% after a draw, 30.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.3%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on VfL Wolfsburg v VfL Osnabrück has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 58% / 23% / 19% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 58% / 20% / 22%: the biggest move is VfL Osnabrück's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. VfL Wolfsburg win58%=
  2. Draw20%▼ −3
  3. VfL Osnabrück win22%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.