Moreirense vs Estrela Primeira Liga prediction & result
Final score: Moreirense 2-1 Estrela.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Moreirense, 26% draw, 32% Estrela — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published
All Primeira Liga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Moreirense at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Moreirense vs Estrela
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13André FerreiraG
- 76Dinis PintoD
- 66Gilberto BatistaD
- 4Kevyn MonteiroD
- 27KikoD
- 23N. JohnM
- 65Guilherme LiberatoM
- 11LandersonM
- 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano MendonçaM
- 19Tiago AndradeM
- 79L. VonićF
- 25Afonso AssisM
- 1AranhaG
- 26MaracásD
- 17Álvaro MartínezD
- 21Rodri AlonsoM
- 2Leandro Henrique Sousa SantosD
- 28Chipyoka SongaF
- 8M. StjepanovićM
- 89Afonso VieiraF
- 24Léo LinckG
- 21M. ScholzeD
- 30Patrick LuanD
- 5S. LekovićD
- 3L. Mincarelli DavinD
- 6K. Höög JanssonM
- 78Santiago SerraM
- 99A. MarcusM
- 14L. ZvonarekM
- 10I. StoicaM
- 37L. AntonettiF
- 17Jefferson EncadaD
- 22David GriloG
- 49R. MutebaF
- 28T. MoustierM
- 71E. Pedro VangaM
- 51Diogo PintoG
- 55Rafa SoaresD
- 4Bernardo SchappoD
- 79A. ChernevD
Form going into Moreirense vs Estrela
Moreirense
Primeira Liga
- W3-1away to Estoril25 October 2026
- L0-1GIL Vicente9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Vitória SC20 September 2026
Estrela
Primeira Liga
- L0-2Casa Pia24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Arouca11 October 2026
- L0-2Academico Viseu20 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Moreirense | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 14 |
| 12 | Estrela | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Estrela vs Moreirense
Estrela and Moreirense have met 7 times in the records we hold, Moreirense has won 3 of them to Estrela's 1, with 3 drawn.
The record
Moreirense won the last one 2–1 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 10 |
| Moreirense | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 8 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 2.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
Primeira LigaMoreirense 2–1 Estrela - 2 May 2026
Primeira LigaMoreirense 3–2 Estrela - 20 Dec 2025
Primeira LigaEstrela 0–0 Moreirense - 2 Mar 2025
Primeira LigaMoreirense 1–1 Estrela - 28 Sep 2024
Primeira LigaEstrela 2–1 Moreirense - 7 Apr 2024
Primeira LigaMoreirense 2–2 Estrela - 11 Nov 2023
Primeira LigaEstrela 0–1 Moreirense
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Estrela's attack rates 16% above Moreirense's, and Moreirense concede 18% fewer than Estrela. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 0.94 | 1.41 |
| Moreirense | 0.81 | 1.15 |
Leading scorers: Moreirense and Estrela
Moreirense
GoalsAssists
- N. John30
Estrela
GoalsAssists
- L. Antonetti51
- I. Stoica42
- A. Marcus41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Moreirense beat Estrela 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Moreirense at 42%. The goals: Landerson Costa Araújo 50' for Moreirense, Lovro Zvonarek 57' for Estrela, Nile John 90+5' for Moreirense. On expected goals it finished 0.52–0.74.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Moreirense a 13.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 9.1% after a win, 13.2% after a draw, 16.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.1%, 4 points lower than before the match.
For Estrela the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 16.6% going in: 11.1% after a win, 16.2% after a draw, 20.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.0%, 3.4 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Primeira Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Moreirense v Estrela has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 37% / 27% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 42% / 26% / 32%: the biggest move is Moreirense's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- Moreirense win42%▲ +5
- Draw26%▼ −1
- Estrela win32%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.