31 October 2026, 19:30 UTC

Karlsruher SC vs 1. FC Heidenheim 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

BBBank Wildpark, Karlsruhe
Referee: Soren Storks
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Karlsruher SC 2-1 1. FC Heidenheim.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Karlsruher SC, 24% draw, 42% 1. FC Heidenheim — fair odds of 2.94, 4.17 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

1. FC Heidenheim at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Karlsruher SC94%Draw6%1. FC Heidenheim0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Tim Civejaassist: Marvin Wanitzek
19'
45'
🔁Paul Hennrichout: Mathias Honsak
45'
🔁Christian Contehout: Alessandro Vogt
Santeri Väänänen
55'
🔁Deniz Ofliout: Viktor Bergh
59'
🔁Kevin Wiethaupout: Noel Eichinger
67'
67'
🔁Oualid Mhamdiout: Marnon Busch
68'
🔁Jan Schoppnerout: Tim Siersleben
77'
Marnon Busch
78'
Mikkel Kaufmann
79'
🔁Marcel Costlyout: Leart Paqarda
⚽Marvin Wanitzek
80'
88'
⚽Alessandro Vogtassist: Leart Paqarda
Noel Eichinger
88'
Maximilian Senft
90+2'
🔁Shio Fukudaout: John Davis Meyer
90+3'

Match stats — Karlsruher SC vs 1. FC Heidenheim

45%Possession55%
13Shots18
9On target7
4Corners6
1.58xG1.32

Goals against chances

Karlsruher SC2 from 1.58 xGabout what the chances were worth
1. FC Heidenheim1 from 1.32 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Karlsruher SC 3-5-2
  • 1H. BernatG
  • 15Paul SchollD
  • 22C. KobaldD
  • 24S. TrémouletD
  • 36Rafael Pinto PedrosaM
  • 6S. VäänänenM
  • 10M. WanitzekM
  • 7K. WiethaupM
  • 3D. OfliM
  • 23T. CivejaF
  • 13S. FukudaF
Substitutes
  • 19Louey Ben FarhatM
  • 33V. BerghD
  • 25L. EgloffM
  • 4HélitonD
  • 30R. HimmelmannG
  • 26D. H. ZorM
  • 37J. PonenteF
  • 27J. D. MeyerF
  • 11N. EichingerM
Coach: M. Senft
1. FC Heidenheim 4-4-2
  • 33T. DähneG
  • 22O. MhamdiD
  • 6P. MainkaD
  • 19J. FöhrenbachD
  • 27M. HeuleD
  • 24M. CostlyM
  • 3J. SchöppnerM
  • 8P. HennrichM
  • 10C. ContehM
  • 11B. ZivzivadzeF
  • 29M. KaufmannF
Substitutes
  • 38Y. WagnerF
  • 18A. VogtF
  • 4T. SierslebenD
  • 23L. PaqaradaD
  • 16J. NiehuesM
  • 28Adam KölleD
  • 17M. HonsakF
  • 1Frank FellerG
  • 2M. BuschD
Coach: F. Schmidt

Form going into Karlsruher SC vs 1. FC Heidenheim

Karlsruher SC

2. Bundesliga

  • L1-6away to 1. FC Magdeburg24 October 2026
  • W4-0SV Darmstadt 9818 October 2026
  • L0-2away to FC St. Pauli11 October 2026

1. FC Heidenheim

2. Bundesliga

  • D1-1Energie Cottbus24 October 2026
  • L1-3away to VfL Wolfsburg17 October 2026
  • D0-01. FC Kaiserslautern9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Karlsruher SC113261524-911
71. FC Heidenheim114431920-116

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Karlsruher SC vs 1. FC Heidenheim

  • 21 March 20241. FC Heidenheim 0–1 Karlsruher SCFriendlies Clubs
  • 17 March 2023FC Heidenheim 5–2 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
  • 10 September 2022Karlsruher SC 0–0 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
  • 15 May 2022FC Heidenheim 2–0 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
  • 12 December 2021Karlsruher SC 3–2 FC Heidenheim2. Bundesliga
  • 23 May 2021FC Heidenheim 1–2 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga

The result against the call

Karlsruher SC beat 1. FC Heidenheim 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for 1. FC Heidenheim at 42% and given a win for Karlsruher SC 34%. The goals: Tim Civeja 19' for Karlsruher SC, Marvin Wanitzek 80' for Karlsruher SC, Alessandro Vogt 88' for 1. FC Heidenheim. On expected goals it finished 1.58–1.32.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Karlsruher SC a 39.5% chance to finish in the bottom two: 32.5% after a win, 40.8% after a draw, 43.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.5%, 7 points lower than before the match.

For 1. FC Heidenheim the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 8.2% going in: 10.3% after a win, 7.1% after a draw, 5.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.4%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Karlsruher SC v 1. FC Heidenheim has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 23% / 24% / 53% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 34% / 24% / 42%: the biggest move is Karlsruher SC's chance of winning, up 11 points.

  1. Karlsruher SC win34%▲ +11
  2. Draw24%=
  3. 1. FC Heidenheim win42%▼ −11

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.