17 October 2026, 18:30 UTC

Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Hannover
Referee: Felix Prigan, Germany
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Hannover 96 1-1 FC St. Pauli.

Before kick-off the model made it 34% Hannover 96, 28% draw, 38% FC St. Pauli — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC St. Pauli at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hannover 964%Draw92%FC St. Pauli4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Husseyn Chakroun
8'
•Husseyn Chakroun
9'
Stefán Teitur Thórdarson
17'
45+1'
⚽Abdoulie Ceesayassist: Louis Oppie
⚽Husseyn Chakroun
48'
62'
🔁Youssoupha Niangout: Martijn Kaars
62'
🔁Mathias Rasmussenout: Samuel Klein
🔁Kolja Oudenneout: Benedikt Pichler
68'
🔁Husseyn Chakrounout: Hayate Matsuda
75'
🔁Marcel Hartelout: Bastian Allgeier
78'
85'
🔁Abdoulie Ceesayout: Ricky-Jade Jones
86'
🔁Connor Metcalfeout: Branimir Hrgota
90+2'
Joel Chima Fujita
90+4'
🔁Ricky-Jade Jonesout: Taichi Hara

Match stats — Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli

43%Possession57%
13Shots15
4On target6
3Corners3
1.35xG1

Goals against chances

Hannover 961 from 1.35 xGabout what the chances were worth
FC St. Pauli1 from 1.00 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Hannover 96 4-4-2
  • 30L. WeinkaufG
  • 5V. GhițăD
  • 3B. TomiakD
  • 4J. HugonetD
  • 33M. NeubauerD
  • 14H. ChakrounM
  • 8W. TaïbiM
  • 23S. ÞórðarsonM
  • 29K. OudenneM
  • 9B. KällmanF
  • 10M. HartelF
Substitutes
  • 17B. AllgeierD
  • 28Taycan Macid EtcibasiF
  • 1P. LoretzG
  • 27H. MatsudaD
  • 20I. OkonD
  • 11B. PichlerF
  • 38Jasper ReinholdM
  • 13F. RoggowM
  • 44E. SahitiF
Coach: S. Wagner
FC St. Pauli 3-4-2-1
  • 1B. VollG
  • 4D. NemethD
  • 8E. SmithD
  • 21L. RitzkaD
  • 11A. PyrkaM
  • 20M. RasmussenM
  • 16J. FujitaM
  • 23L. OppieM
  • 7Y. NiangM
  • 24C. MetcalfeM
  • 9Abdoulie CeesayF
Substitutes
  • 22Samuel KleinM
  • 33D. MitovG
  • 19M. KaarsF
  • 26R. JonesF
  • 10B. HrgotaF
  • 18T. HaraF
  • 25A. DźwigałaD
  • 15T. AndoD
  • 14E. AhlstrandM
Coach: M. Rapp

Form going into Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli

Hannover 96

2. Bundesliga

  • L0-3away to 1. FC Magdeburg10 October 2026

FC St. Pauli

2. Bundesliga

  • W2-0Karlsruher SC11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Hannover 96113351218-612
9FC St. Pauli112631316-312

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hannover 96 vs FC St. Pauli

  • 21 April 2024Hannover 96 1–2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
  • 10 November 2023FC St. Pauli 0–0 Hannover 962. Bundesliga
  • 24 March 2023FC St. Pauli 2–0 Hannover 96Friendlies Clubs
  • 5 February 2023FC St. Pauli 2–0 Hannover 962. Bundesliga
  • 23 July 2022Hannover 96 2–2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
  • 20 February 2022FC St. Pauli 0–3 Hannover 962. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: Hannover 96 and FC St. Pauli

Hannover 96

No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

FC St. Pauli

GoalsAssists

  • Abdoulie Ceesay50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Hannover 96 and FC St. Pauli drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FC St. Pauli at 38% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Abdoulie Ceesay 45+1' for FC St. Pauli, Husseyn Chakroun 48' for Hannover 96. On expected goals it finished 1.35–1.00.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hannover 96 a 14.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 10.1% after a win, 14.7% after a draw, 16.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 14.7%.

For FC St. Pauli the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 35.6% going in: 41.1% after a win, 33.8% after a draw, 29.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 33.8%, 1.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Hannover 96 v FC St. Pauli has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 36% / 29% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 34% / 28% / 38%: the biggest move is FC St. Pauli's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Hannover 96 win34%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. FC St. Pauli win38%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.