18 October 2026, 11:30 UTC

Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Bielefeld
Referee: Michael Bacher
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Arminia Bielefeld 2-1 VfL Osnabrück.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Arminia Bielefeld, 24% draw, 28% VfL Osnabrück — fair odds of 2.08, 4.17 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Arminia Bielefeld at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Arminia Bielefeld96%Draw4%VfL Osnabrück0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
Robin Fabinski
16'
⚽Robin Meißner
⚽Maximilian Bauerassist: Arne Sicker
26'
Benjamin boakye
38'
🔁Isaiah Youngout: monju thaddaus momuluh
59'
🔁Benjamin boakyeout: Jannik Rochelt
59'
68'
🔁Ismail Badjieout: Daniel-Kofi Kyereh
🔁Felix Hagmannout: Henri Koudossou
81'
🔁Leon Jensenout: Joel Felix
81'
83'
🔁Leon Maximilian Flachout: Luca Raimund
⚽Jannik Rocheltassist: monju thaddaus momuluh
85'
Maximilian Grosser
86'
🔁Joel Grodowskiout: Vincent Ocansey
88'
Stefano Russo
89'
89'
🔁Jannik Müllerout: Theo Janotta
89'
🔁Adrian Beckout: Bernd Riesselmann
89'
🔁Jonathan Gómezout: Leonhard Luis Munst

Match stats — Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück

51%Possession49%
15Shots8
3On target1
6Corners0
1.12xG1.48

Goals against chances

Arminia Bielefeld2 from 1.12 xGmore than the chances were worth
VfL Osnabrück1 from 1.48 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Arminia Bielefeld 4-1-4-1
  • 1J. KerskenG
  • 2F. HagmannD
  • 5M. BauerD
  • 19M. GroßerD
  • 17A. SickerD
  • 21S. RussoM
  • 27Benjamin Bediako BoakyeM
  • 31L. JensenM
  • 38M. WörlM
  • 30I. YoungM
  • 11J. GrodowskiF
Substitutes
  • 39V. OcanseyF
  • 18L. OppermannG
  • 10J. RocheltM
  • 3J. FelixD
  • 29T. HandwerkerD
  • 7H. KoudossouD
  • 8S. SchreckM
  • 6M. MehlemM
  • 14M. MomuluhF
Coach: Oliver Kirch
VfL Osnabrück 3-4-2-1
  • 32J. KrumreyG
  • 27R. FabinskiD
  • 24J. MüllerD
  • 25N. WiemannD
  • 31P. KammerbauerM
  • 18L. FlachM
  • 15B. JacobsenM
  • 42J. GómezM
  • 10I. BadjieM
  • 21A. BeckM
  • 11R. MeißnerF
Substitutes
  • 20T. JanottaD
  • 7D. KyerehM
  • 8L. MünstM
  • 17L. RaimundF
  • 22B. RiesselmannF
  • 1N. SauterG
  • 26F. WagnerM
  • 4J. Abu HannaD
  • 28K. FaberD
Coach: T. Schultz

Form going into Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück

Arminia Bielefeld

2. Bundesliga

  • W1-0away to VfL Bochum11 October 2026

VfL Osnabrück

2. Bundesliga

  • D1-1Dynamo Dresden10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Arminia Bielefeld115241816+217
14VfL Osnabrück113261418-411

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Arminia Bielefeld vs VfL Osnabrück

  • 15 March 2025VfL Osnabrück 0–1 Arminia Bielefeld3. Liga
  • 20 October 2024Arminia Bielefeld 3–1 VfL Osnabrück3. Liga
  • 15 August 2020Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 VfL OsnabrückFriendlies Clubs
  • 17 May 2020Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 VfL Osnabrück2. Bundesliga
  • 7 October 2019VfL Osnabrück 0–1 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
  • 18 February 2015VfL Osnabrück 0–4 Arminia Bielefeld3. Liga

Leading scorers: Arminia Bielefeld and VfL Osnabrück

Arminia Bielefeld

GoalsAssists

  • J. Grodowski72

VfL Osnabrück

GoalsAssists

  • R. Meißner41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Arminia Bielefeld beat VfL Osnabrück 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Arminia Bielefeld at 48%. The goals: Robin Meißner 16' for VfL Osnabrück, Maximilian Bauer 26' for Arminia Bielefeld, Jannik Rochelt 85' for Arminia Bielefeld. On expected goals it finished 1.12–1.48.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Arminia Bielefeld a 9.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 6.8% after a win, 10.1% after a draw, 13.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.8%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.

For VfL Osnabrück the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 30.2% going in: 22.7% after a win, 31.0% after a draw, 33.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 33.3%, 3.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Arminia Bielefeld v VfL Osnabrück has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 43% / 26% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 48% / 24% / 28%: the biggest move is Arminia Bielefeld's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Arminia Bielefeld win48%▲ +5
  2. Draw24%▼ −2
  3. VfL Osnabrück win28%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.