29 August 2026, 13:30 UTC

1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim Bundesliga prediction & result

RheinEnergieStadion, Cologne
Full time3 – 2

Final score: 1. FC Köln 3-2 1899 Hoffenheim.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% 1. FC Köln, 26% draw, 26% 1899 Hoffenheim — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts 1. FC Köln at 48% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

1. FC Köln96%Draw4%1899 Hoffenheim0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
⚽A. Daghimassist: B. Conte
⚽S. El Mala
51'
53'
🔁Bernardoout: R. Hranac
53'
🔁A. Hlozekout: M. Moerstedt
57'
⚽Max Moerstedt (pen)
🔁P. Okon-Engstlerout: E. Skhiri
65'
🔁S. El Malaout: L. Maina
65'
🔁R. Acheout: T. Dallinga
66'
67'
⚽O. Kabakassist: V. Coufal
71'
🔁P. Wimmerout: N. De Cat
⚽T. Dallingaassist: L. Maina
72'
⚽T. Dallinga
82'
83'
Ozan Kabak
87'
🔁A. Hajdariout: M. Rots
87'
🔁A. Daghimout: A. Kramaric
90+4'
Max Moerstedt
🔁A. Castro-Montesout: J. Schmied
90+3'
🔁T. Kraussout: M. Bulter
90'

Match stats — 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim

41%Possession59%
18Shots15
6On target4
6Corners7
1.71xG1.75

Goals against chances

1. FC Köln3 from 1.71 xGmore than the chances were worth
1899 Hoffenheim2 from 1.75 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

1. FC Köln 4-3-3
  • 1M. SchwabeG
  • 17A. Castro-MontesD
  • 22J. Simpson-PuseyD
  • 24L. LochoshviliD
  • 14G. MensahD
  • 8I. JohannessonM
  • 5T. KraussM
  • 23P. Okon-EngstlerM
  • 29J. ThielmannF
  • 9R. AcheF
  • 10S. El MalaF
Substitutes
  • 20R. ZielerG
  • 2J. SchmiedD
  • 33R. van den BergD
  • 6E. SkhiriM
  • 39J. FriemelM
  • 37L. MainaM
  • 27T. DallingaF
  • 11R. HeskeyF
  • 30M. BulterF
Coach: Rene Wagner
1899 Hoffenheim 4-4-2
  • 1O. BaumannG
  • 34V. CoufalD
  • 5O. KabakD
  • 21A. HajdariD
  • 13BernardoD
  • 8P. WimmerM
  • 18W. BurgerM
  • 7L. AvdullahuM
  • 14A. DaghimM
  • 10A. HlozekF
  • 20B. ConteF
Substitutes
  • 37L. PhilippG
  • 2R. HranacD
  • 15V. GendreyD
  • 39M. RotsD
  • 29N. AbrahaD
  • 17N. De CatM
  • 32C. LenzM
  • 27A. KramaricF
  • 9M. MoerstedtF
Coach: Christian Ilzer

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
121. FC Köln311157-24
131899 Hoffenheim310267-13

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim

  • 29 August 20261. FC Köln 3–2 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
  • 21 February 20261. FC Köln 2–2 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
  • 3 October 20251899 Hoffenheim 0–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
  • 11 February 20241899 Hoffenheim 1–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
  • 16 September 20231. FC Köln 1–3 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
  • 22 April 20231899 Hoffenheim 1–3 1. FC KölnBundesliga

Leading scorers: 1. FC Köln and 1899 Hoffenheim

1. FC Köln

No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

1899 Hoffenheim

  • A. Hložek2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.