1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: 1. FC Köln 3-2 1899 Hoffenheim.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% 1. FC Köln, 26% draw, 26% 1899 Hoffenheim — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
1. FC Köln at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. SchwabeG
- 17A. Castro-MontesD
- 22J. Simpson-PuseyD
- 24L. LochoshviliD
- 14G. MensahD
- 8I. JohannessonM
- 5T. KraussM
- 23P. Okon-EngstlerM
- 29J. ThielmannF
- 9R. AcheF
- 10S. El MalaF
- 20R. ZielerG
- 2J. SchmiedD
- 33R. van den BergD
- 6E. SkhiriM
- 39J. FriemelM
- 37L. MainaM
- 27T. DallingaF
- 11R. HeskeyF
- 30M. BulterF
- 1O. BaumannG
- 34V. CoufalD
- 5O. KabakD
- 21A. HajdariD
- 13BernardoD
- 8P. WimmerM
- 18W. BurgerM
- 7L. AvdullahuM
- 14A. DaghimM
- 10A. HlozekF
- 20B. ConteF
- 37L. PhilippG
- 2R. HranacD
- 15V. GendreyD
- 39M. RotsD
- 29N. AbrahaD
- 17N. De CatM
- 32C. LenzM
- 27A. KramaricF
- 9M. MoerstedtF
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 1. FC Köln | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim
- 21 February 20261. FC Köln 2–2 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 3 October 20251899 Hoffenheim 0–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 11 February 20241899 Hoffenheim 1–1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
- 16 September 20231. FC Köln 1–3 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 22 April 20231899 Hoffenheim 1–3 1. FC KölnBundesliga
The result against the call
1. FC Köln beat 1899 Hoffenheim 3–2. The model had made a win for 1. FC Köln its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: A. Daghim 27' for 1899 Hoffenheim, S. El Mala 51' for 1. FC Köln, O. Kabak 67' for 1899 Hoffenheim, T. Dallinga 72' for 1. FC Köln, T. Dallinga 82' for 1. FC Köln. On expected goals it finished 1.71–1.75.