FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: FSV Mainz 05 0-0 SC Paderborn 07.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% FSV Mainz 05, 31% draw, 22% SC Paderborn 07 — fair odds of 2.13, 3.23 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
FSV Mainz 05 at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 27R. ZentnerG
- 21D. da CostaD
- 3F. GruberD
- 31D. KohrD
- 6K. SanoM
- 19A. CaciM
- 7Lee Jae-SungM
- 10N. AmiriM
- 2P. MweneM
- 23S. BeckerF
- 9P. TietzF
- 1A. SchwolowG
- 30S. WidmerD
- 15L. MaloneyM
- 4S. PoschD
- 48K. PotulskiD
- 24S. KawasakiM
- 20O. RuoppiM
- 11R. KonigsdorfferF
- 47R. NakuzolaD
- 15N. NollG
- 21J. ter HorstD
- 25T. SchellerD
- 22M. HansenD
- 17L. CurdaM
- 28L. UlrichM
- 5S. CastanedaM
- 23R. ObermairM
- 18M. PieringerF
- 30S. MarinoF
- 40G. VidovicF
- 1M. SchubertG
- 3J. StickerD
- 29C. LippmannM
- 24N. MohrD
- 6T. BaackM
- 7O. Batista MeierM
- 8L. Djuric
- 27S. TiggesF
- 38D. ZeitlerF
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | FSV Mainz 05 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 19 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn 07 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07
- 29 February 2020FSV Mainz 05 2–0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
- 5 October 2019SC Paderborn 07 1–2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
- 31 January 2015FSV Mainz 05 5–0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
- 24 August 2014SC Paderborn 07 2–2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Leading scorers: FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07
FSV Mainz 05
GoalsAssists
- P. Tietz60
- A. Caci33
SC Paderborn 07
No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07 drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for FSV Mainz 05 at 47% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.24–0.76.