29 August 2026, 13:30 UTC

FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 Bundesliga prediction & result

Mewa Arena, Mainz
Full time0 – 0

Final score: FSV Mainz 05 0-0 SC Paderborn 07.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% FSV Mainz 05, 31% draw, 22% SC Paderborn 07 — fair odds of 2.13, 3.23 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FSV Mainz 05 at 47% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FSV Mainz 054%Draw94%SC Paderborn 072%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

38'
Santiago Castañeda
67'
🔁S. Marinoout: S. Tigges
🔁S. Beckerout: O. Ruoppi
68'
🔁Lee Jae-Sungout: R. Konigsdorffer
68'
72'
Mattes Hansen
🔁A. Caciout: S. Widmer
73'
75'
🔁M. Hansenout: J. Sticker
75'
🔁L. Ulrichout: T. Baack
🔁D. Kohrout: K. Potulski
80'
Phillipp Mwene
90+1'
90+2'
🔁M. Pieringerout: C. Lippmann

Match stats — FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07

51%Possession49%
22Shots10
4On target0
11Corners2
1.24xG0.76

Goals against chances

FSV Mainz 050 from 1.24 xGless than the chances were worth
SC Paderborn 070 from 0.76 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FSV Mainz 05 3-1-4-2
  • 27R. ZentnerG
  • 21D. da CostaD
  • 3F. GruberD
  • 31D. KohrD
  • 6K. SanoM
  • 19A. CaciM
  • 7Lee Jae-SungM
  • 10N. AmiriM
  • 2P. MweneM
  • 23S. BeckerF
  • 9P. TietzF
Substitutes
  • 1A. SchwolowG
  • 30S. WidmerD
  • 15L. MaloneyM
  • 4S. PoschD
  • 48K. PotulskiD
  • 24S. KawasakiM
  • 20O. RuoppiM
  • 11R. KonigsdorfferF
  • 47R. NakuzolaD
Coach: Urs Fischer
SC Paderborn 07 3-4-3
  • 15N. NollG
  • 21J. ter HorstD
  • 25T. SchellerD
  • 22M. HansenD
  • 17L. CurdaM
  • 28L. UlrichM
  • 5S. CastanedaM
  • 23R. ObermairM
  • 18M. PieringerF
  • 30S. MarinoF
  • 40G. VidovicF
Substitutes
  • 1M. SchubertG
  • 3J. StickerD
  • 29C. LippmannM
  • 24N. MohrD
  • 6T. BaackM
  • 7O. Batista MeierM
  • 8L. Djuric
  • 27S. TiggesF
  • 38D. ZeitlerF
Coach: Ralf Kettemann

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8FSV Mainz 05311163+34
15SC Paderborn 07301204-41

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07

  • 29 August 2026FSV Mainz 05 0–0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
  • 29 February 2020FSV Mainz 05 2–0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
  • 5 October 2019SC Paderborn 07 1–2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
  • 31 January 2015FSV Mainz 05 5–0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
  • 24 August 2014SC Paderborn 07 2–2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga

Leading scorers: FSV Mainz 05 and SC Paderborn 07

FSV Mainz 05

  • P. Tietz3 goals

SC Paderborn 07

No league goals yet this season.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.