29 August 2026, 13:30 UTC

RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga prediction & result

Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
Full time3 – 0

Final score: RB Leipzig 3-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% RB Leipzig, 23% draw, 22% Borussia Mönchengladbach — fair odds of 1.82, 4.35 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts RB Leipzig at 55% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

RB Leipzig99%Draw1%Borussia Mönchengladbach0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽R. Bakuassist: T. Gomis
25'
⚽A. Nusaassist: T. Gomis
49'
🔁T. Gomisout: C. Nkunku
64'
64'
🔁W. Mohyaout: D. Herold
64'
🔁L. Ullrichout: M. Nguefack
64'
🔁K. Stogerout: F. Honorat
64'
🔁R. Hackout: I. Lidberg
⚽R. Reitzassist: C. Nkunku
66'
Antonio Nusa
72'
🔁R. Bakuout: B. Henrichs
73'
🔁B. Grudaout: J. Bakayoko
73'
76'
🔁T. Kleindienstout: S. Machino
🔁R. Reitzout: A. Vermeeren
83'
🔁E. Banzuziout: C. Harder
83'
90+6'
•Hugo Bolin

Match stats — RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

47%Possession53%
25Shots14
11On target4
7Corners6
3.95xG0.91

Goals against chances

RB Leipzig3 from 3.95 xGless than the chances were worth
Borussia Mönchengladbach0 from 0.91 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

RB Leipzig 4-3-3
  • 26M. VandevoordtG
  • 17R. BakuD
  • 4W. OrbanD
  • 23C. LukebaD
  • 22D. RaumD
  • 20R. ReitzM
  • 13N. SeiwaldM
  • 6E. BanzuziM
  • 10B. GrudaF
  • 27T. GomisF
  • 7A. NusaF
Substitutes
  • 25L. ZingerleG
  • 35M. FinkgrafeD
  • 39B. HenrichsD
  • 3M. EsteveD
  • 48A. VermeerenM
  • 30A. MaksimovicM
  • 28C. NkunkuF
  • 11J. BakayokoF
  • 9C. HarderF
Coach: Martin Demichelis
Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. NicolasG
  • 14D. HashiokaD
  • 6K. ItakuraD
  • 4K. DiksD
  • 26L. UllrichD
  • 16P. SanderM
  • 7K. StogerM
  • 38H. BolinM
  • 36W. MohyaM
  • 25R. HackM
  • 11T. KleindienstF
Substitutes
  • 33D. BatzG
  • 20D. HeroldD
  • 5J. LeszczynskiD
  • 29J. ScallyD
  • 34M. NguefackM
  • 8E. LeopoldM
  • 18S. MachinoF
  • 9F. HonoratM
  • 3I. LidbergF
Coach: Eugen Polanski

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5RB Leipzig320193+66
17Borussia Mönchengladbach3003312-90

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

  • 29 August 2026RB Leipzig 3–0 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
  • 11 April 2026RB Leipzig 1–0 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
  • 28 November 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–0 RB LeipzigBundesliga
  • 29 March 2025Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–0 RB LeipzigBundesliga
  • 9 November 2024RB Leipzig 0–0 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
  • 17 February 2024RB Leipzig 2–0 Borussia MonchengladbachBundesliga

Leading scorers: RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach

RB Leipzig

  • A. Nusa2 goals2 assists
  • R. Baku2 goals

Borussia Mönchengladbach

  • H. Bolin2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.