29 August 2026, 13:30 UTC

Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga prediction & result

Berlin
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Union Berlin 3-3 Eintracht Frankfurt.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Union Berlin, 25% draw, 25% Eintracht Frankfurt — fair odds of 2.00, 4.00 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Union Berlin at 50% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Union Berlin0%Draw5%Eintracht Frankfurt95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽E. Latte Lathassist: J. Juranovic
3'
10'
⚽Y. Ebnoutalib
11'
Younes Ebnoutalib
11'
⚽Y. Ebnoutalib
13'
Jeremiaha Maluze
Michel Aebischer
23'
🔁A. Schaferout: Jeong Woo-Yeong
61'
🔁E. Latte Lathout: T. Skarke
61'
🔁M. Aebischerout: L. Burcu
61'
66'
🔁J. Burkardtout: M. Pimpong
67'
⚽Y. Ebnoutalibassist: E. Baum
🔁A. Kemleinout: J. Haberer
75'
79'
🔁C. Uzunout: L. Arrhov
79'
🔁A. Amaimouniout: O. Hojlund
⚽L. Querfeldassist: J. Juranovic
79'
Zeno Van Den Bosch
81'
🔁M. Ljubicicout: D. Kohn
82'
84'
Raphael Onyedika
85'
🔁Y. Ebnoutalibout: Otavio
90'
Otavio
⚽T. Skarkeassist: L. Querfeld
90'

Match stats — Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt

48%Possession52%
18Shots11
10On target3
5Corners2
1.92xG1.37

Goals against chances

Union Berlin3 from 1.92 xGmore than the chances were worth
Eintracht Frankfurt3 from 1.37 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Union Berlin 4-1-3-2
  • 31M. RaabG
  • 18J. JuranovicD
  • 14L. QuerfeldD
  • 4Z. Van Den BoschD
  • 15T. RotheD
  • 6A. KemleinM
  • 20M. AebischerM
  • 8R. KhediraM
  • 13A. SchaferM
  • 27M. LjubicicF
  • 29E. Latte LathF
Substitutes
  • 25C. KlausG
  • 28C. TrimmelD
  • 2F. UduokhaiD
  • 17D. KohnD
  • 19J. HabererM
  • 11Jeong Woo-YeongM
  • 21T. SkarkeM
  • 9L. BurcuF
  • 49L. GutherF
Coach: Mauro Lustrinelli
Eintracht Frankfurt 4-4-2
  • 1N. AtuboluG
  • 2E. BaumD
  • 4R. KochD
  • 37J. MaluzeD
  • 26K. KosugiD
  • 29A. AmaimouniM
  • 8F. ChaibiM
  • 25R. OnyedikaM
  • 42C. UzunM
  • 11Y. EbnoutalibF
  • 9J. BurkardtF
Substitutes
  • 40Kaua SantosG
  • 22T. ChandlerD
  • 5OtavioD
  • 27M. GotzeM
  • 19J. BahoyaF
  • 31L. ArrhovM
  • 6O. HojlundM
  • 15N. Aseko-NkiliM
  • 35M. PimpongF
Coach: Adi Hutter

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Union Berlin3012410-61
9Eintracht Frankfurt311178-14

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt

  • 29 August 2026Union Berlin 3–3 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
  • 6 February 2026Union Berlin 1–1 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
  • 21 September 2025Eintracht Frankfurt 3–4 Union BerlinBundesliga
  • 9 March 2025Eintracht Frankfurt 1–2 Union BerlinBundesliga
  • 27 October 2024Union Berlin 1–1 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
  • 30 March 2024Eintracht Frankfurt 0–0 Union BerlinBundesliga

Leading scorers: Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt

Union Berlin

  • T. Skarke2 goals

Eintracht Frankfurt

  • Y. Ebnoutalib3 goals1 assists
  • J. Burkardt2 goals1 assists
  • C. Uzun2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.