30 August 2026, 11:30 UTC

1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel 2. Bundesliga prediction & result

Avnet-Arena, Magdeburg
Full time2 – 0

Final score: 1. FC Magdeburg 2-0 Holstein Kiel.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% 1. FC Magdeburg, 29% draw, 31% Holstein Kiel — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

1. FC Magdeburg at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

1. FC Magdeburg99%Draw1%Holstein Kiel0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Alexander Nollenberger
6'
20'
Jonas Therkelsen
Barış Atik
28'
29'
•Kasper Davidsen
Pierre Nadjombe
31'
44'
Kasper Davidsen
🔁P. Nadjombeout: T. Musel
46'
Anselmo Garcia McNulty
47'
54'
Jonas Meffert
Tobias Müller
64'
64'
🔁K. Davidsenout: G. de Regt
⚽M. Zukowskiassist: B. Atik
72'
🔁M. Kwartengout: M. Baars
75'
79'
🔁J. Tolkinout: N. Takahashi
⚽L. Hyrylainenassist: A. Nollenberger
81'
84'
Ivan Nekić
85'
🔁J. Meffertout: F. Alidou
🔁A. Nollenbergerout: E. Dzogovic
86'
🔁B. Atikout: R. Simic
90+2'
🔁M. Zukowskiout: R. Tachie
90+2'

Match stats — 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel

36%Possession64%
10Shots14
2On target2
3Corners3
0.83xG2.11

Goals against chances

1. FC Magdeburg2 from 0.83 xGmore than the chances were worth
Holstein Kiel0 from 2.11 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

1. FC Magdeburg 4-3-3
  • 1D. ReimannG
  • 28P. NadjombeD
  • 5T. MullerD
  • 3A. Garcia MacNultyD
  • 17A. NollenbergerD
  • 38L. HyrylainenM
  • 10M. KwartengM
  • 21F. MichelM
  • 8E. IyohaF
  • 22M. ZukowskiF
  • 23B. AtikF
Substitutes
  • 30N. KruthG
  • 6P. JaeckelD
  • 4E. DzogovicD
  • 11F. ChavezM
  • 33L. MergnerM
  • 26T. MuselM
  • 9R. SimicF
  • 29R. TachieF
  • 35M. BaarsF
Coach: Petrik Sander
Holstein Kiel 4-3-2-1
  • 1T. WeinerG
  • 32H. SekineD
  • 13I. NekicD
  • 26D. ZecD
  • 47J. TolkinD
  • 8G. BalziM
  • 28J. MeffertM
  • 15K. DavidsenM
  • 20A. KapralikM
  • 10J. TherkelsenM
  • 19P. HarresF
Substitutes
  • 41L. RothenhagenG
  • 5N. MadsenD
  • 3N. TakahashiD
  • 40L. ParduziD
  • 27I. UgohM
  • 30T. TasdelenM
  • 48H. MuqajM
  • 17F. AlidouF
  • 11G. de RegtF
Coach: Tim Walter

Form going into 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel

1. FC Magdeburg

All competitions we cover

  • W3-0away to VfL Osnabrück15 August 2026
  • L1-6Eintracht Braunschweig8 August 2026

Holstein Kiel

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2FC St. Pauli14 August 2026
  • D2-2away to SV Darmstadt 988 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

2. Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
41. FC Magdeburg116232514+1120
18Holstein Kiel111551114-38

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Holstein Kiel

  • 9 May 2026Holstein Kiel 1–3 1. FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
  • 13 December 20251. FC Magdeburg 3–3 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
  • 2 February 2024FC Magdeburg 1–1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
  • 1 November 2023Holstein Kiel 3–3 FC MagdeburgDFB Pokal
  • 20 August 2023Holstein Kiel 2–4 FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga
  • 11 February 2023Holstein Kiel 2–3 FC Magdeburg2. Bundesliga

Leading scorers: 1. FC Magdeburg and Holstein Kiel

1. FC Magdeburg

GoalsAssists

  • E. Iyoha60
  • M. Żukowski60

Holstein Kiel

GoalsAssists

  • P. Harres53

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

1. FC Magdeburg beat Holstein Kiel 2–0. The model had made a win for 1. FC Magdeburg its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: M. Zukowski 72' for 1. FC Magdeburg, L. Hyrylainen 81' for 1. FC Magdeburg. On expected goals it finished 0.83–2.11.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.