1899 Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: 1899 Hoffenheim 2-3 Beşiktaş.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% 1899 Hoffenheim, 25% draw, 35% Beşiktaş — fair odds of 2.50, 4.00 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
1899 Hoffenheim at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — 1899 Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. BaumannG
- 34V. CoufalD
- 5O. KabakD
- 28K. MachidaD
- 13BernardoD
- 18W. BurgerM
- 7L. AvdullahuM
- 27A. KramarićM
- 11F. AsllaniM
- 14A. DaghimM
- 10A. HložekF
- 20B. ContéM
- 29Natnael AbrahaD
- 17Nathan De CatM
- 15V. GendreyD
- 2R. HranáčD
- 19T. LemperleF
- 32Cajetan Benjamin LenzM
- 9Max MoerstedtF
- 36L. PeterssonG
- 1A. NübelG
- 62A. MurilloD
- 12E. AgbadouD
- 53E. TopçuD
- 11K. OuattaraD
- 4W. NdidiM
- 10O. KökçüM
- 29I. FakiliM
- 15J. OlaitanM
- 19L. TrossardM
- 9Oh Hyeon-GyuF
- 80D. AlemdarG
- 33R. YılmazD
- 17E. PokuF
- 58Y. ÖzcanD
- 6S. ÖzcanM
- 21F. MirettiM
- 90S. KılıçsoyF
- 8K. YılmazM
- 35Tiago DjalóD
Form going into 1899 Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş
1899 Hoffenheim
UEFA Europa League
- L0-2away to OFI17 September 2026
Beşiktaş
UEFA Europa League
- W4-1Marseille17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: 1899 Hoffenheim and Beşiktaş
1899 Hoffenheim
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Beşiktaş
GoalsAssists
- J. Olaitan23
- Oh Hyeon-Gyu21
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Beşiktaş won 3–2 at 1899 Hoffenheim. The model had leaned towards a win for 1899 Hoffenheim at 40% and given a win for Beşiktaş 35%. The goals: Amir Murillo 60' for Beşiktaş, Fisnik Asllani 68' for 1899 Hoffenheim, Oh Hyeon-gyu 72' for Beşiktaş, Oh Hyeon-gyu 79' for Beşiktaş, Koki Machida 87' for 1899 Hoffenheim. On expected goals it finished 1.23–3.39.
How the call on 1899 Hoffenheim v Beşiktaş has moved
First published on 1 Oct at 40% / 27% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 40% / 25% / 35%: the biggest move is Beşiktaş's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- 1899 Hoffenheim win40%=
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Beşiktaş win35%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often 1899 Hoffenheim's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Beşiktaş's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.