Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Ferencvarosi TC 2-1 Plzen.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Ferencvarosi TC, 28% draw, 38% Plzen — fair odds of 2.94, 3.57 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Plzen at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 63Dániel István RadnótiG
- 14A. OsváthD
- 28T. RaemaekersD
- 4M. GómezD
- 20CaduD
- 17M. CorbuM
- 6Á. NagyM
- 11B. YusufM
- 16K. ZachariassenM
- 7V. BirmančevićM
- 76K. LisztesF
- 18Á. BagiF
- 15D. ArzaniF
- 90D. DibuszG
- 71C. LakatosD
- 10J. LeviF
- 72Ádám MadarászM
- 80H. MaïgaM
- 54O. NagyD
- 47C. O'DowdaM
- 1D. ŤapajG
- 29A. GabrielD
- 40S. DwehD
- 98F. PrebslD
- 14Merchas DoskiD
- 36S. PirgiÄM
- 17P. HrošovskýM
- 12A. SojkaM
- 20Jiří Maxim PanošM
- 99A. MemićM
- 25C. KabongoF
- 23B. FaalF
- 18T. LadraF
- 7S. LawalF
- 2T. PališčákD
- 19C. SouaréM
- 10M. ToureF
- 3D. VavroD
- 9D. VišinskýM
- 11M. VydraF
Form going into Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen
Ferencvarosi TC
UEFA Europa League
- W3-1away to Celtic17 September 2026
Plzen
UEFA Europa League
- L0-3Union St. Gilloise17 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | +8 | 12 |
| 30 | Plzen | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ferencvarosi TC vs Plzen
- 25 September 2025Ferencvarosi TC 1–1 PlzenUEFA Europa League
- 20 February 2025Plzen 3–0 Ferencvarosi TCUEFA Europa League
- 13 February 2025Ferencvarosi TC 1–0 PlzenUEFA Europa League
- 25 January 2024Ferencvarosi TC 1–3 PlzenFriendlies Clubs
- 16 January 2023Plzen 0–0 Ferencvarosi TCFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Ferencvarosi TC and Plzen
Ferencvarosi TC
GoalsAssists
- L. Joseph41
- K. Zachariassen34
- B. Yusuf22
Plzen
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Ferencvarosi TC beat Plzen 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Plzen at 38% and given a win for Ferencvarosi TC 34%. The goals: Kristoffer Zachariassen 49' for Ferencvarosi TC, Kristoffer Zachariassen (penalty) 81' for Ferencvarosi TC, Denis Višinský 90' for Plzen. On expected goals it finished 2.38–1.99.
How the call on Ferencvarosi TC v Plzen has moved
First published on 1 Oct at 37% / 29% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 34% / 28% / 38%: the biggest move is Plzen's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Ferencvarosi TC win34%▼ −3
- Draw28%▼ −1
- Plzen win38%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Ferencvarosi TC's most recent league matches and Plzen's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.