Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Lech Poznan 0-4 Bayer Leverkusen.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Lech Poznan, 26% draw, 38% Bayer Leverkusen — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Bayer Leverkusen at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. LisG
- 2Joel PereiraD
- 72M. SkrzypczakD
- 27W. MońkaD
- 15M. GurgulD
- 5G. BerggrenM
- 43A. KozubalM
- 10P. WålemarkM
- 9M. IshakM
- 14L. BengtssonM
- 77L. PalmaF
- 59T. YegbeD
- 56W. SzymczakF
- 21Pablo RodríguezM
- 33M. PruchniewskiG
- 24F. JagiełłoM
- 11D. HåkansM
- 53K. DelikatM
- 7Y. AgneroF
- 55Piotr BartczakD
- 1M. FlekkenG
- 17Lucas VázquezD
- 5L. BadéD
- 12E. TapsobaD
- 3Miguel GutiérrezD
- 6E. FernándezM
- 24Aleix GarcíaM
- 23N. TellaM
- 10M. TillmanM
- 30I. MazaM
- 11M. TerrierF
- 14P. SchickF
- 4J. QuansahD
- 9Afonso MoreiraF
- 2F. MedinaD
- 36N. LombG
- 19M. DiabyF
- 28J. BlaswichG
- 8R. AndrichM
Form going into Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen
Lech Poznan
UEFA Europa League
- L0-4away to Crystal Palace17 September 2026
Bayer Leverkusen
UEFA Europa League
- W2-0Celje16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 1 |
| 7 | Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Bayer Leverkusen won 4–0 at Lech Poznan. The model had made a win for Bayer Leverkusen its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Patrik Schick (penalty) 29' for Bayer Leverkusen, Malik Tillman 32' for Bayer Leverkusen, Patrik Schick (penalty) 41' for Bayer Leverkusen, Ibrahim Maza 88' for Bayer Leverkusen. On expected goals it finished 0.54–5.40.
How the call on Lech Poznan v Bayer Leverkusen has moved
First published on 1 Oct at 33% / 28% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 36% / 26% / 38%: the biggest move is Lech Poznan's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Lech Poznan win36%▲ +3
- Draw26%▼ −2
- Bayer Leverkusen win38%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Lech Poznan's most recent league matches and Bayer Leverkusen's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.