15 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Lyon vs Crystal Palace UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon
Referee: Joao Pinheiro
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Lyon 3-2 Crystal Palace.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Lyon, 25% draw, 22% Crystal Palace — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lyon at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lyon97%Draw3%Crystal Palace0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Corentin Tolisso
8'
36'
Ismaila Sarr
⚽Ernest Nuamahassist: Keito Nakamura
45+2'
50'
⚽Yeremy Pinoassist: Adam Wharton
56'
Yeremy Pino
Keito Nakamura
58'
62'
🔁Jörgen Strand Larsenout: Eddie Nketiah
62'
🔁Ismaila Sarrout: Daichi Kamada
🔁Khalis Merahout: Pavel Šulc
70'
🔁Ernest Nuamahout: Kail Boudache
70'
75'
🔁Yeremy Pinoout: Dario Osorio
75'
🔁Oscar Minguezaout: Anan Khalaili
⚽Pavel Šulcassist: Keito Nakamura
76'
🔁Noah Teye Narteyout: Tanner Tessmann
78'
81'
⚽Daichi Kamada
82'
Chris Richards
86'
🔁Quinten Timberout: Dwight McNeil
🔁Corentin Tolissoout: Mads Bidstrup
90'

Match stats — Lyon vs Crystal Palace

51%Possession49%
11Shots12
4On target4
5Corners3
1.79xG1.63

Goals against chances

Lyon3 from 1.79 xGmore than the chances were worth
Crystal Palace2 from 1.63 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lyon 4-1-2-1-2
  • 1D. GreifG
  • 13Z. AthekameD
  • 20F. BacherD
  • 21R. KluivertD
  • 16AbnerD
  • 23T. MortonM
  • 99N. NarteyM
  • 8C. TolissoM
  • 18K. MerahM
  • 7E. NuamahF
  • 11Keito NakamuraF
Substitutes
  • 2M. BidstrupM
  • 26K. BoudacheF
  • 40R. DescampsG
  • 24J. DuranvilleF
  • 45R. HimbertF
  • 85N. KamaraD
  • 37Steeve KangoD
  • 22Clinton MataD
  • 19M. NiakhatéD
Coach: Paulo Fonseca
Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1
  • 44W. BenítezG
  • 26C. RichardsD
  • 5A. DisasiD
  • 6J. CanvotD
  • 30Óscar MinguezaM
  • 20A. WhartonM
  • 23Q. TimberM
  • 3T. MitchellM
  • 7I. SarrM
  • 10Yeremy PinoM
  • 22J. Strand LarsenF
Substitutes
  • 24D. OsorioM
  • 9E. NketiahF
  • 11D. McNeilF
  • 31R. MatthewsG
  • 25A. KhalailiD
  • 18D. KamadaM
  • 19W. HughesM
  • 81Lucca BenettonG
  • 54D. BenamarD
Coach: P. Sage

Form going into Lyon vs Crystal Palace

Lyon

UEFA Europa League

  • W2-1away to Anderlecht16 September 2026

Crystal Palace

UEFA Europa League

  • W4-0Lech Poznan17 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Lyon421167-17
21Crystal Palace412196+35

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lyon vs Crystal Palace

  • 5 August 2023Crystal Palace 2–0 LyonFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Lyon and Crystal Palace

Lyon

No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Crystal Palace

GoalsAssists

  • Yeremy Pino30

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lyon beat Crystal Palace 3–2. The model had made a win for Lyon its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Corentin Tolisso 8' for Lyon, Ernest Nuamah 45+2' for Lyon, Yeremy Pino 50' for Crystal Palace, Pavel Šulc 76' for Lyon, Daichi Kamada 81' for Crystal Palace. On expected goals it finished 1.79–1.63.

How the call on Lyon v Crystal Palace has moved

First published on 1 Oct at 51% / 27% / 22% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 53% / 25% / 22%: the biggest move is Lyon's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Lyon win53%▲ +2
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Crystal Palace win22%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.