15 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Chorten Arena, Bialystok
Referee: Anastasios Papapetrou
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Jagiellonia 3-1 Ararat-Armenia.

Before kick-off the model made it 71% Jagiellonia, 18% draw, 11% Ararat-Armenia — fair odds of 1.41, 5.56 and 9.09.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Jagiellonia at 71%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Jagiellonia99%Draw1%Ararat-Armenia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽Zidane Banjaquiassist: Maxence Carlier
⚽Kamil Jóźwiak
13'
17'
🔁Zidane Banjaquiout: Zhirayr Shaghoyan
Taras Romanczuk
20'
30'
Bruno Wilson
⚽Rodrigo Conceiçãoassist: Ferslev Anders Klynge
38'
49'
Manuel Jorge da Silva Cruz
⚽Ousmane Sowassist: Jesús Imaz
51'
57'
Elvin Tera
🔁Ousmane Sowout: Jeremy Agbonifo
66'
68'
🔁Elvin Teraout: Bernardo Oliveira Dias
68'
🔁Luís Felipe Fernandes Rodriguesout: Karen Muradyan
🔁Kamil Jóźwiakout: Dušan Stojinović
68'
🔁Jesús Imazout: Eryk Kozlowski
68'
76'
🔁Artur Serobyanout: Carlos Henrique França Freires
76'
🔁Sandro Limaout: Arayik Eloyan
🔁Kajetan·Szmytout: Aleksandar·Cirkovic
79'
🔁Taras Romanczukout: Sergio Lozano
80'
Dušan Stojinović
83'
Eryk Kozlowski
84'

Match stats — Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia

42%Possession58%
13Shots15
5On target4
2Corners3
2.1xG1.02

Goals against chances

Jagiellonia3 from 2.10 xGmore than the chances were worth
Ararat-Armenia1 from 1.02 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Jagiellonia 4-4-2
  • 50S. AbramowiczG
  • 27Rodrigo ConceiçãoD
  • 5Bernardo VitalD
  • 4Y. KobayashiD
  • 20B. WdowikD
  • 72K. JóźwiakM
  • 6T. RomanczukM
  • 19A. KlyngeM
  • 7K. SzmytM
  • 11Jesús ImazF
  • 30O. SowF
Substitutes
  • 10J. AgbonifoF
  • 32A. ĆirkovićF
  • 14H. FinndellM
  • 44A. KonstantopoulosD
  • 21Sergio LozanoM
  • 23Guilherme Manuel Serrão MontóiaD
  • 1M. PerchelG
  • 3D. StojinovićD
  • 85Eryk KozlowskiM
Coach: A. Siemieniec
Ararat-Armenia 3-4-3
  • 98João BravimG
  • 43Bruno WilsonD
  • 17M. CarlierD
  • 5Luís FelipeD
  • 2Hugo OliveiraM
  • 8J. BalantaM
  • 20A. TeraM
  • 16E. GrigoryanM
  • 77A. SerobyanF
  • 91Sandro LimaF
  • 11Zidane BanjaquiF
Substitutes
  • 10A. AmbartsumyanM
  • 7Z. ShaghoyanF
  • 14Bruno PereiraD
  • 25A. NdourF
  • 19K. MuradyanM
  • 47A. MalisD
  • 95FrançaF
  • 9A. EloyanM
  • 70Bernardo Oliveira DiasM
Coach: Tulipa

Form going into Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia

Jagiellonia

UEFA Europa League

  • L1-2away to Olympiakos Piraeus16 September 2026

Ararat-Armenia

UEFA Europa League

  • L1-4Sparta Praha16 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
29Jagiellonia410347-33
36Ararat-Armenia4004414-100

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Jagiellonia beat Ararat-Armenia 3–1. The model had made a win for Jagiellonia its most likely outcome, at 71%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Zidane Banjaqui 11' for Ararat-Armenia, Kamil Jóźwiak 13' for Jagiellonia, Rodrigo Conceição 38' for Jagiellonia, Ousmane Sow 51' for Jagiellonia. On expected goals it finished 2.10–1.02.

How the call on Jagiellonia v Ararat-Armenia has moved

First published on 1 Oct at 65% / 21% / 14% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 71% / 18% / 11%: the biggest move is Jagiellonia's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Jagiellonia win71%▲ +6
  2. Draw18%▼ −3
  3. Ararat-Armenia win11%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.