15 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Referee: Orel Grinfeld
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Dinamo Zagreb 1-0 Anderlecht.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Dinamo Zagreb, 26% draw, 31% Anderlecht — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dinamo Zagreb at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dinamo Zagreb5%Draw91%Anderlecht4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Niko Galesic
29'
35'
Tristan Degreef
Josip Mišić
55'
🔁Iker Almena Horcajoout: Dani Rodríguez
62'
🔁Niko Galesicout: Moris Valincic
62'
65'
🔁Lukas Ambrosout: Tawfik Bentayeb
🔁Luka Stojkovicout: Lukas Kacavenda
68'
73'
Marten Winkler
77'
🔁Tristan Degreefout: Adriano Bertaccini
77'
🔁Mihajlo Cvetkovicout: Danylo Sikan
87'
🔁Mario Stroeykensout: Romeo Amane
87'
🔁Marten Winklerout: Oliver Antman
•Dani Rodríguez
90+4'
⚽Dion Drena Beljo (pen)
90+6'

Match stats — Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht

45%Possession55%
13Shots10
3On target6
6Corners2
2.11xG1.1

Goals against chances

Dinamo Zagreb1 from 2.11 xGless than the chances were worth
Anderlecht0 from 1.10 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dinamo Zagreb 4-1-4-1
  • 24D. KotarskiG
  • 15N. GalešićD
  • 36Sergi DomínguezD
  • 6S. RadeljićD
  • 22Olof Matteo Perez VinlöfD
  • 27J. MišićM
  • 23Iker AlmenaM
  • 10L. StojkovićM
  • 17L. IvanušecM
  • 11A. HoxhaM
  • 9D. BeljoF
Substitutes
  • 3B. GodaD
  • 44I. FilipovićG
  • 80L. KačavendaM
  • 5K. KravtsovM
  • 21M. LisicaF
  • 26S. McKennaD
  • 99M. OršićF
  • 14S. PrevljakF
  • 7Dani RodríguezF
Coach: Mario Kovacevic
Anderlecht 4-2-3-1
  • 26C. CoosemansG
  • 50K. BarryD
  • 12A. OmobamideleD
  • 27L. PétrotD
  • 5O. ReabciukD
  • 29M. StroeykensM
  • 19T. AasgaardM
  • 10M. WinklerM
  • 18L. AmbrosM
  • 83T. DegreefM
  • 9M. CvetkovićF
Substitutes
  • 11O. AntmanF
  • 14D. SikanF
  • 79A. MaamarD
  • 24E. LlansanaM
  • 2Zoumana KeitaD
  • 55M. KanaM
  • 32J. HeekerenG
  • 91A. BertacciniF
  • 21T. BentayebF
Coach: Vítor Bruno

Form going into Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht

Dinamo Zagreb

UEFA Europa League

  • D0-0away to Hapoel Beer Sheva16 September 2026

Anderlecht

UEFA Europa League

  • L1-2Lyon16 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Europa League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Dinamo Zagreb421154+17
15Anderlecht420263+36

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht

  • 13 December 2018Dinamo Zagreb 0–0 AnderlechtUEFA Europa League
  • 4 October 2018Anderlecht 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Dinamo Zagreb and Anderlecht

Dinamo Zagreb

GoalsAssists

  • D. Beljo40

Anderlecht

No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dinamo Zagreb beat Anderlecht 1–0. The model had made a win for Dinamo Zagreb its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Dion Drena Beljo (penalty) 90+6' for Dinamo Zagreb. On expected goals it finished 2.11–1.10.

How the call on Dinamo Zagreb v Anderlecht has moved

First published on 1 Oct at 40% / 28% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 43% / 26% / 31%: the biggest move is Dinamo Zagreb's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Dinamo Zagreb win43%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Anderlecht win31%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.