Aalborg vs Hobro 1. Division prediction & result
Final score: Aalborg 1-1 Hobro.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Aalborg, 26% draw, 27% Hobro — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All 1. Division (Denmark) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Aalborg at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1V. Muller
- 33E. Makolli
- 21P. Sondergaard
- 4B. Tiedemann
- 24N. A. Arnorsson
- 18M. Tielemans
- 17A. Jasson
- 8A. Hapnes
- 14M. Kubel
- 28V. Moller
- 7J. Adedeji
- 22R. De Boer
- 15C. Olsson
- 26M. Bonde
- 11K. Normann
- 25F. Borsting
- 27K. John
- 48D. Popalzai
- 30W. Thomsen
- 46J. Hvistendahl
- 25J. Dakir
- 20A. Noshe
- 18E. Sogaard
- 3C. Enemark
- 5M. Kannegaard
- 27L. Klitten
- 16O. Meedom
- 43A. Breum
- 8M. Pedersen
- 26T. Hansen
- 9F. Christensen
- 1A. Sondergaard
- 12M. Jacobsen
- 2M. Londal
- 17Z. Hyltoft
- 7O. Klitten
- 29O. Obasi
- 11R. Hauge
- 22M. Huldahl
- 40P. Flak
Form going into Aalborg vs Hobro
Aalborg
1. Division
- L1-2away to Hillerød24 October 2026
- L0-1Vejle17 October 2026
- D3-3away to Esbjerg10 October 2026
Hobro
1. Division
- D2-2Vendsyssel FF23 October 2026
- L0-3away to FC Fredericia17 October 2026
- D1-1Kolding IF10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Denmark 1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aalborg | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
| 7 | Hobro | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aalborg vs Hobro
- 21 August 2026Hobro 2–1 Aalborg1. Division
- 1 May 2026Aalborg 1–1 Hobro1. Division
- 10 April 2026Hobro 0–1 Aalborg1. Division
- 14 March 2026Hobro 1–0 Aalborg1. Division
- 1 August 2025Aalborg 1–1 Hobro1. Division
- 29 June 2024Hobro 1–1 AalborgFriendlies Clubs
The result against the call
Aalborg and Hobro drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Aalborg at 47% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: A. Noshe 15' for Hobro, A. Hapnes 20' for Aalborg.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Aalborg a 26.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 17.1% after a win, 30.1% after a draw, 40.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 30.1%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.
For Hobro the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 31.1% going in: 15.7% after a win, 30.1% after a draw, 38.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 30.1%, 1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.