31 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Kolding IF vs HB Koge 1. Division prediction & result

Autocentralen Park, Kolding
Referee: M. Lykke
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Kolding IF 3-2 HB Koge.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Kolding IF, 28% draw, 30% HB Koge — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Kolding IF at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kolding IF97%Draw3%HB Koge0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
⚽T. Thomsenassist: R. Brodersen
⚽M. Dojassist: T. Augustinus-Jensen
33'
⚽F. Lesniakassist: V. Morozov
51'
⚽V. Morozov
54'
54'
🔁M. Warmingout: E. Semovski
🔁V. Morozovout: I. Niare
60'
🔁L. Laursenout: J. Hansen
60'
71'
⚽L. Bust
72'
L. Bust
🔁A. Mannehout: M. Lynge
73'
🔁G. Fribergout: P. Thome
73'
74'
🔁L. Bustout: V. Sorensen
74'
🔁R. Brodersenout: N. Jakobsen
81'
🔁M. Jensenout: M. Romer
81'
🔁F. Isakiout: G. Culhaci
🔁T. Augustinus-Jensenout: A. Arshad
87'
A. Arshad
90+6'

Line-ups

Kolding IF
  • 28A. Danko
  • 21M. Doj
  • 2L. Laursen
  • 3A. Norager
  • 5G. Friberg
  • 22I. Tannander
  • 34A. Manneh
  • 4F. Lesniak
  • 20D. Johannesson
  • 7T. Augustinus-Jensen
  • 18V. Morozov
Substitutes
  • 27K. Shushman
  • 29J. Hansen
  • 25M. Nyassi
  • 16S. Christensen
  • 6M. Lynge
  • 41G. Steffensen
  • 42P. Thome
  • 11A. Arshad
  • 26I. Niare
Coach: Karl Aksum
HB Koge
  • 1N. Sommergaard
  • 23M. Westergren
  • 22M. Jakobsen
  • 2L. Bust
  • 17L. Achton
  • 28G. Larsen
  • 7M. Jensen
  • 6R. Brodersen
  • 25F. Isaki
  • 11M. Warming
  • 9T. Thomsen
Substitutes
  • 16C. Mols
  • 5G. Culhaci
  • 4S. Hald
  • 14V. Sorensen
  • 8M. Romer
  • 21N. Jakobsen
  • 19E. Semovski
  • 10C. Jensen Tue
  • 27N. Stolshoj
Coach: Nicklas Pedersen

Form going into Kolding IF vs HB Koge

Kolding IF

1. Division

  • L0-1away to AB Copenhagen24 October 2026
  • W2-1Vendsyssel FF16 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Hobro10 October 2026

HB Koge

1. Division

  • D2-2away to Hvidovre23 October 2026
  • L2-3AB Copenhagen16 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Vendsyssel FF11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Denmark 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Kolding IF143651720-315
11HB Koge142662026-612

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kolding IF vs HB Koge

  • 23 August 2026HB Koge 2–2 Kolding IF1. Division
  • 17 October 2025HB Koge 2–1 Kolding IF1. Division
  • 1 August 2025Kolding IF 3–1 HB Koge1. Division
  • 25 October 2024HB Koge 0–1 Kolding IF1. Division
  • 14 September 2024Kolding IF 1–1 HB Koge1. Division
  • 7 October 2023Kolding IF 3–1 HB Koge1. Division

The result against the call

Kolding IF beat HB Koge 3–2. The model had made a win for Kolding IF its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: T. Thomsen 11' for HB Koge, M. Doj 33' for Kolding IF, F. Lesniak 51' for Kolding IF, V. Morozov 54' for Kolding IF, L. Bust 71' for HB Koge.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Kolding IF a 34.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 22.2% after a win, 38.6% after a draw, 48.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.2%, 12.5 points lower than before the match.

For HB Koge the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 37.7% going in: 24.4% after a win, 36.4% after a draw, 47.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 47.2%, 9.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Kolding IF v HB Koge has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 42% / 28% / 30%: the biggest move is Kolding IF's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Kolding IF win42%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. HB Koge win30%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.