Esbjerg vs Hvidovre 1. Division prediction & result
Final score: Esbjerg 1-1 Hvidovre.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Esbjerg, 27% draw, 39% Hvidovre — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All 1. Division (Denmark) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Hvidovre at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 1W. Lykke
- 17J. Lucena
- 25G. Bjerge
- 5J. Foss
- 19S. Strand
- 10O. Boesen
- 24G. Madsen
- 7N. Strunck
- 99A. Ahmad
- 80M. Brajanac
- 9J. Ampofo
- 34E. Jorgensen
- 4P. Tjornelund
- 32N. Blicher
- 8M. Maden
- 6L. Vigen
- 22B. Hvidt
- 18M. Hansen
- 1F. Djukic
- 77A. Njai
- 15A. Iljazovski
- 25M. Kiilerich
- 23N. Clausen
- 22N. Huygevelde
- 7L. Prip
- 8O. Jensen
- 14O. Kjaergaard
- 10A. Smed
- 11D. Bagou
- 29A. Ravn
- 2D. Stenderup
- 3O. Jensen Juul
- 6A. Okosun
- 18M. Knudsen
- 4Z. Aliji
- 26R. Risnaes
- 19A. Johansen
- 24E. Aby
Form going into Esbjerg vs Hvidovre
Esbjerg
1. Division
- W2-1FC Fredericia24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Aarhus Fremad16 October 2026
- D3-3Aalborg10 October 2026
Hvidovre
1. Division
- D2-2HB Koge23 October 2026
- W1-0Hillerød18 October 2026
- W2-1away to Vejle9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Denmark 1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Esbjerg | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 14 |
| 1 | Hvidovre | 14 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 27 | 13 | +14 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Esbjerg vs Hvidovre
- 9 August 2026Hvidovre 2–1 Esbjerg1. Division
- 25 May 2026Hvidovre 1–4 Esbjerg1. Division
- 10 April 2026Esbjerg 1–0 Hvidovre1. Division
- 29 November 2025Hvidovre 1–3 Esbjerg1. Division
- 26 July 2025Esbjerg 2–1 Hvidovre1. Division
- 15 May 2025Esbjerg 2–0 Hvidovre1. Division
The result against the call
Esbjerg and Hvidovre drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Hvidovre at 39% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: J. Ampofo 78' for Esbjerg, E. Aby 82' for Hvidovre.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Esbjerg a 52.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 40.2% after a win, 55.1% after a draw, 61.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 55.1%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.
For Hvidovre the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 62.4% going in: 72.2% after a win, 59.3% after a draw, 53.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 59.3%, 3.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Esbjerg v Hvidovre has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 32% / 27% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 34% / 27% / 39%: the biggest move is Esbjerg's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Esbjerg win34%▲ +2
- Draw27%=
- Hvidovre win39%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.