30 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

FC Volendam vs De Graafschap Eerste Divisie prediction & result

Kras Stadion, Volendam
Full time1 – 2

Final score: FC Volendam 1-2 De Graafschap.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% FC Volendam, 23% draw, 20% De Graafschap — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Volendam at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Volendam0%Draw7%De Graafschap93%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Y. Jaber el Maftahi
4'
52'
⚽Donny Warmerdamassist: Clint Leemans
61'
🔁Clint Leemansout: Joran Hardeman
70'
🔁Nolan Martensout: Kyano Kwint
70'
🔁Fedde De Jongout: Toivo Mero
Nick Doodeman
74'
🔁Nordin Bukalaout: Mohammed Belfqih
75'
83'
⚽Joran Hardeman
🔁Y. Jaber el Maftahiout: Frederik Ihler
83'
🔁Alex Platout: Mawouna Amevor
87'
90'
🔁Bjorn van Zijlout: Nart Ahmeti-Grainca

Match stats — FC Volendam vs De Graafschap

40%Possession60%
13Shots15
1On target4
6Corners8
1.07xG1.23

Goals against chances

FC Volendam1 from 1.07 xGabout what the chances were worth
De Graafschap2 from 1.23 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Volendam 4-2-3-1
  • 16R. SteurG
  • 12D. PayneD
  • 25Luca BlondeauD
  • 6A. PlatD
  • 2P. UgwuD
  • 18N. BukalaM
  • 8D. HuismanM
  • 7N. DoodemanM
  • 10R. NiemeijerM
  • 21Y. el MaftahiM
  • 9H. VeermanF
Substitutes
  • 22D. VlakG
  • 5Dean BisschopsD
  • 34M. BelfqihM
  • 3M. AmevorD
  • 67F. IhlerF
  • 63J. HaakmatD
  • 32Lex KoningG
  • 11Kayden WolffF
  • 29Jesper TielemansF
Coach: E. van de Looi
De Graafschap 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. WieggersG
  • 2J. WieckhoffD
  • 3R. BesselinkD
  • 15T. KokD
  • 5L. SchoppemaD
  • 16N. MartensM
  • 6C. LeemansM
  • 7Bjorn van ZijlM
  • 8D. WarmerdamM
  • 23M. DiemersM
  • 10F. de JongF
Substitutes
  • 14Gijs BolkD
  • 18Denzel EijkenM
  • 4J. HardemanD
  • 21K. SymonsD
  • 25M. PabaiD
  • 11T. MeroF
  • 17N. KanindaF
  • 9J. KaniaF
  • 33R. JonkersG
Coach: T. Duivenvoorden

Form going into FC Volendam vs De Graafschap

FC Volendam

Eerste Divisie

  • W6-2Jong Utrecht23 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Waalwijk18 October 2026

De Graafschap

Eerste Divisie

  • D1-1Waalwijk23 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Jong Ajax19 October 2026
  • W2-1Jong Utrecht9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7FC Volendam157173427+722
16De Graafschap144371829-1115

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Volendam vs De Graafschap

  • 22 December 2024FC Volendam 2–1 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
  • 11 August 2024De Graafschap 4–3 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
  • 8 April 2022FC Volendam 3–1 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
  • 10 September 2021De Graafschap 0–3 FC VolendamEerste Divisie
  • 24 January 2021FC Volendam 1–4 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
  • 7 November 2020De Graafschap 2–5 FC VolendamEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: FC Volendam and De Graafschap

FC Volendam

GoalsAssists

  • H. Veerman142
  • R. Niemeijer52

De Graafschap

No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

De Graafschap won 2–1 at FC Volendam. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Volendam at 57% and given a win for De Graafschap 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Y. Jaber el Maftahi 4' for FC Volendam, Donny Warmerdam 52' for De Graafschap, Joran Hardeman 83' for De Graafschap. On expected goals it finished 1.07–1.23.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Volendam a 76.9% chance to finish in the top eight: 79.9% after a win, 74.1% after a draw, 70.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 70.6%, 6.3 points lower than before the match.

For De Graafschap the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 12.9% going in: 19.7% after a win, 12.7% after a draw, 10.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.7%, 6.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Volendam v De Graafschap has moved

First published on 16 Oct at 58% / 24% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 57% / 23% / 20%: the biggest move is De Graafschap's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. FC Volendam win57%▼ −1
  2. Draw23%▼ −1
  3. De Graafschap win20%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.