17 October 2026, 11:30 UTC

Aalborg vs Vejle 1. Division prediction & result

Aalborg Portland Park, Aalborg
Referee: P. Gammelholm
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Aalborg 0-1 Vejle.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Aalborg, 27% draw, 40% Vejle — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Vejle at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aalborg0%Draw4%Vejle96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
⚽M. Duelundassist: L. From
P. Sondergaard
23'
🔁M. Tielemansout: A. Hapnes
36'
42'
C. Sorensen
🔁T. Persynout: F. Borsting
54'
76'
🔁W. Faghirout: G. Marcussen
🔁K. Normannout: W. Thomsen
82'
🔁M. Kubelout: K. John
82'
82'
🔁T. Gundelundout: M. Vestergaard
🔁E. Makolliout: N. A. Arnorsson
82'
N. A. Arnorsson
90'
90'
🔁L. Fromout: M. Jensen

Form going into Aalborg vs Vejle

Aalborg

1. Division

  • D3-3away to Esbjerg10 October 2026

Vejle

1. Division

  • L1-2Hvidovre9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Denmark 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Aalborg143741719-216
2Vejle147612616+1027

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Aalborg vs Vejle

  • 28 April 2025Aalborg 0–1 VejleSuperliga
  • 6 April 2025Vejle 1–1 AalborgSuperliga
  • 3 November 2024Aalborg 3–3 VejleSuperliga
  • 4 October 2024Vejle 2–2 AalborgSuperliga
  • 6 March 2022Aalborg 0–0 VejleSuperliga

The result against the call

Vejle won 1–0 at Aalborg. The model had made a win for Vejle its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: M. Duelund 17' for Vejle.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Aalborg a 21.1% chance to finish in the top four: 30.0% after a win, 19.1% after a draw, 14.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.5%, 6.6 points lower than before the match.

For Vejle the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 23.8% going in: 30.0% after a win, 20.1% after a draw, 16.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.0%, 6.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Aalborg v Vejle has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 33% / 29% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 33% / 27% / 40%: the biggest move is Vejle's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Aalborg win33%=
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Vejle win40%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.