16 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg 1. Division prediction & result

Riisvangen, Aarhus
Referee: M. Thomsen
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Aarhus Fremad 0-0 Esbjerg.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Aarhus Fremad, 26% draw, 23% Esbjerg — fair odds of 1.96, 3.85 and 4.35.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Aarhus Fremad at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aarhus Fremad5%Draw92%Esbjerg3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

70'
G. Madsen
70'
🔁M. Madenout: P. Bjur
🔁C. Nygaardout: S. Baekgard
71'
🔁Y. Abdullahiout: K. Lunding
71'
🔁M. Rybergout: M. de Claville
71'
71'
🔁A. Ahmadout: M. Hansen
M. Kirchheiner
77'
S. Andreasen
77'
🔁M. Kirchheinerout: M. Kjolby
78'
87'
🔁P. Tjornelundout: L. Vigen
🔁S. Andreasenout: J. Beluli
90+1'

Form going into Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg

Aarhus Fremad

1. Division

  • L0-2away to AB Copenhagen9 October 2026

Esbjerg

1. Division

  • D3-3Aalborg10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Denmark 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Aarhus Fremad144641214-218
10Esbjerg143561724-714

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg

  • 4 July 2026Esbjerg 2–0 Aarhus FremadFriendlies Clubs
  • 25 October 2025Aarhus Fremad 0–1 Esbjerg1. Division
  • 28 September 2025Esbjerg 1–1 Aarhus Fremad1. Division
  • 18 May 2024Aarhus Fremad 2–0 Esbjerg2. Division
  • 26 April 2024Esbjerg 0–1 Aarhus Fremad2. Division

The result against the call

Aarhus Fremad and Esbjerg drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Aarhus Fremad at 51% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Aarhus Fremad a 33.3% chance to finish in the top four: 39.1% after a win, 27.4% after a draw, 21.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 27.4%, 5.9 points lower than before the match.

For Esbjerg the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 73.4% going in: 60.3% after a win, 73.0% after a draw, 78.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 73.0%.

Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Aarhus Fremad v Esbjerg has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 48% / 28% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 51% / 26% / 23%: the biggest move is Aarhus Fremad's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Aarhus Fremad win51%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Esbjerg win23%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.