17 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

FC Fredericia vs Hobro 1. Division prediction & result

Monjasa Park, Fredericia
Referee: F. Iriskic
Full time3 – 0

Final score: FC Fredericia 3-0 Hobro.

Before kick-off the model made it 61% FC Fredericia, 22% draw, 17% Hobro — fair odds of 1.64, 4.55 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Fredericia at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Fredericia99%Draw1%Hobro0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

E. Simonsen
11'
⚽E. Simonsenassist: J. Lindekilde
12'
13'
M. Pedersen
14'
M. Jacobsen
⚽A. Bondergaard (pen)
15'
⚽E. Simonsenassist: W. Madsen
44'
45'
A. Noshe
🔁B. Bang-Kittilsenout: C. Jorgensen
46'
56'
🔁T. Hansenout: A. Breum
69'
🔁A. Nosheout: M. Londal
69'
🔁M. Huldahlout: O. Meedom
🔁D. Haarboout: E. Hansborg
69'
🔁E. Simonsenout: A. Pyndt
69'
🔁W. Madsenout: A. Dahl
69'
🔁A. Bondergaardout: P. Egelund
86'
87'
🔁R. Haugeout: O. Obasi
A. Nygaard
90+1'

Form going into FC Fredericia vs Hobro

FC Fredericia

1. Division

  • W2-0away to Hillerød10 October 2026

Hobro

1. Division

  • D1-1Kolding IF10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Denmark 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3FC Fredericia146532110+1123
7Hobro144461624-816

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Fredericia vs Hobro

  • 27 October 2024Hobro 1–4 FC Fredericia1. Division
  • 16 September 2024FC Fredericia 1–1 Hobro1. Division
  • 2 June 2024FC Fredericia 0–1 Hobro1. Division
  • 20 April 2024Hobro 1–2 FC Fredericia1. Division
  • 25 February 2024Hobro 0–2 FC Fredericia1. Division

The result against the call

FC Fredericia beat Hobro 3–0. The model had made a win for FC Fredericia its most likely outcome, at 61%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: E. Simonsen 12' for FC Fredericia, A. Bondergaard (penalty) 15' for FC Fredericia, E. Simonsen 44' for FC Fredericia.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave FC Fredericia a 90.5% chance to finish in the top four: 93.0% after a win, 88.3% after a draw, 82.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 93.0%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.

For Hobro the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 22.7% going in: 10.8% after a win, 18.0% after a draw, 25.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.1%, 2.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on FC Fredericia v Hobro has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 55% / 25% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 61% / 22% / 17%: the biggest move is FC Fredericia's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. FC Fredericia win61%▲ +6
  2. Draw22%▼ −3
  3. Hobro win17%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.