Santos Laguna vs Club Queretaro Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Santos Laguna 5-0 Club Queretaro.
Before kick-off the model made it 32% Santos Laguna, 29% draw, 39% Club Queretaro — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Club Queretaro at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Santos Laguna vs Club Queretaro
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1C. AcevedoG
- 18F. PardoD
- 25Felipe SánchezD
- 14E. OronaD
- 3M. CuevasM
- 23F. CáseresM
- 21Fran VillalbaM
- 17E. EcheverrÃaM
- 19E. AguirreF
- 29Tahiel Adrián Jiménez SánchezF
- 10E. BullaudeF
- 7D. GonzálezF
- 4J. AbellaD
- 6J. GüémezM
- 33H. HolguínG
- 193Luis GómezM
- 20E. LozanoF
- 5A. LópezM
- 8S. MariscalM
- 28Jonathan PérezD
- 25G. AllisonG
- 16E. GiménezD
- 13D. ReyesD
- 2L. AbasciaD
- 27D. ParraD
- 4Carlo AdrianoM
- 5S. HomenchenkoM
- 7Iker BenitoM
- 11M. CoronelM
- 17D. MuñozM
- 9A. ÁvilaF
- 20A. AlcaláM
- 30J. MartinezM
- 24B. DuarteD
- 1J. HernándezG
- 29W. MadridM
- 8B. ParraM
- 26E. PérezF
- 23J. RoblesM
- 15C. VillanuevaD
Form going into Santos Laguna vs Club Queretaro
Santos Laguna
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Atletico San Luis11 October 2026
- W1-0CF Pachuca27 September 2026
- W3-2away to Toluca21 September 2026
- W2-1FC Juarez14 September 2026
- L0-1away to Cruz Azul6 September 2026
Club Queretaro
All competitions we cover
- W2-0Atlante FC10 October 2026
- W2-0away to Guadalajara Chivas26 September 2026
- D1-1Leon21 September 2026
- W1-0away to Club Tijuana12 September 2026
- W3-1away to Atlas29 August 2026
What these results say
- Santos Laguna won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santos Laguna scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Santos Laguna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Queretaro went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Club Queretaro scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Club Queretaro won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 25 |
| 12 | Club Queretaro | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 24 | -6 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Santos Laguna vs Club Queretaro
- 28 February 2026Club Queretaro 2–2 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 26 October 2025Santos Laguna 3–1 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 13 April 2025Santos Laguna 1–2 Club QueretaroLiga MX
- 9 November 2024Club Queretaro 3–2 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 2 March 2024Club Queretaro 0–1 Santos LagunaLiga MX
- 3 July 2023Santos Laguna 0–2 Club QueretaroLiga MX
Leading scorers: Santos Laguna and Club Queretaro
Santos Laguna
GoalsAssists
- Tahiel Adrián Jiménez Sánchez60
Club Queretaro
GoalsAssists
- A. Ávila60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Santos Laguna beat Club Queretaro 5–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Club Queretaro at 39% and given a win for Santos Laguna 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Tahiel Adrian Jimenez 29' for Santos Laguna, Eduardo Aguirre 44' for Santos Laguna, Tahiel Adrian Jimenez 63' for Santos Laguna, Javier Guemez (penalty) 87' for Santos Laguna, Tahiel Adrian Jimenez 90+3' for Santos Laguna. Sent off: Diego Reyes (Club Queretaro) 67'. On expected goals it finished 4.11–1.54.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Santos Laguna a 11.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 3.4% after a win, 11.9% after a draw, 18.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 3.4%, 8.5 points lower than before the match.
For Club Queretaro the question was the chance to finish top of the Apertura, 35.2% going in: 46.8% after a win, 31.3% after a draw, 22.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 22.9%, 12.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Santos Laguna v Club Queretaro has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 32% / 31% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 32% / 29% / 39%: the biggest move is Club Queretaro's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Santos Laguna win32%=
- Draw29%▼ −2
- Club Queretaro win39%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Santos Laguna's most recent league matches and Club Queretaro's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.