Aalesund vs Sandefjord Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Aalesund 3-4 Sandefjord.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Aalesund, 27% draw, 32% Sandefjord — fair odds of 2.44, 3.70 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Aalesund at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aalesund vs Sandefjord
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Luca PodlechG
- 7K. NessøD
- 2M. AndresenD
- 28D. MbackeD
- 5A. Hammer KjelsenD
- 14U. CharlesD
- 21M. ChristensenM
- 18E. HagenM
- 19S. KartumM
- 8I. SkotheimF
- 9P. NgongoF
- 26T. LarsenG
- 16J. ØrsahlD
- 45P. AuklandD
- 22E. EngqvistD
- 38T. LeikangerM
- 15E. OsenbrochM
- 17E. MyrlidF
- 23S. VecchiaM
- 30E. HadayaG
- 4F. PedersenD
- 13R. HoltenD
- 8T. BørkeeietD
- 5G. HøjbjergD
- 3V. EgeliD
- 7E. PatoulidisM
- 14E. PettersenM
- 10E. GigovićM
- 27J. DunsbyM
- 9O. KapskarmoF
- 24S. MathisenF
- 17A. FosterF
- 37J. VesterM
- 16H. KrogelienD
- 31H. B. SkrettebergD
- 32D. SkaarudF
- 2M. HellanD
- 1A. GrønnebergG
Form going into Aalesund vs Sandefjord
Aalesund
Eliteserien
- L1-2away to Sarpsborg 08 FF25 October 2026
- W4-1away to Kristiansund BK17 October 2026
- L2-4Sarpsborg 08 FF11 October 2026
Sandefjord
Eliteserien
- L0-1away to Start25 October 2026
- L0-2Lillestrom18 October 2026
- D1-1away to Rosenborg10 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Aalesund | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 45 | 60 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Sandefjord | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aalesund vs Sandefjord
- 3 May 2026Sandefjord 1–0 AalesundEliteserien
- 6 November 2023Aalesund 0–3 SandefjordEliteserien
- 30 April 2023Sandefjord 4–0 AalesundEliteserien
- 13 February 2023Sandefjord 2–1 AalesundFriendlies Clubs
- 23 October 2022Aalesund 1–0 SandefjordEliteserien
- 12 July 2022Sandefjord 2–2 AalesundEliteserien
Leading scorers: Aalesund and Sandefjord
Aalesund
GoalsAssists
- M. Christensen116
- H. M. Reed83
Sandefjord
GoalsAssists
- E. Patoulidis83
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sandefjord won 4–3 at Aalesund. The model had leaned towards a win for Aalesund at 41% and given a win for Sandefjord 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Evangelos Patoulidis 16' for Sandefjord, Jakob Maslo Dunsby 30' for Sandefjord, Mathias Christensen (penalty) 38' for Aalesund, Uba Charles Nwokoma 45+2' for Aalesund, Jakob Maslo Dunsby 50' for Sandefjord, Oscar Forsmo Kapskarmo 54' for Sandefjord, Elias Heggland Myrlid 76' for Aalesund. Sent off: Ervin Gigovic (Sandefjord) 82'. On expected goals it finished 2.03–3.01.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Aalesund a 51.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 31.1% after a win, 57.9% after a draw, 72.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 72.0%, 20.8 points higher than before the match.
For Sandefjord the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 24.4% going in: 7.3% after a win, 21.7% after a draw, 38.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.3%, 17.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Aalesund v Sandefjord has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 35% / 27% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 41% / 27% / 32%: the biggest move is Aalesund's chance of winning, up 6 points.
- Aalesund win41%▲ +6
- Draw27%=
- Sandefjord win32%▼ −6
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.