31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg Eliteserien prediction & result

Fredrikstad Stadion, Fredrikstad
Referee: Sigurd Smehus Kringstad
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Fredrikstad 0-3 Rosenborg.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Fredrikstad, 26% draw, 47% Rosenborg — fair odds of 3.70, 3.85 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rosenborg at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fredrikstad0%Draw1%Rosenborg99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

30'
Aslak Fonn Witry
45'
⚽Amin Chiakhaassist: Noah Sahsah
🔁Bryan Fiabemaout: Benjamin Thoresen Faraas
45'
🔁Liam Westout: Gabriel Wesseh
55'
56'
🔁Aslak Fonn Witryout: Mathias Ullereng Kjolo
56'
🔁Noah Sahsahout: Jesper Reitan Sunde
Max Nilsson
58'
58'
Mads Bomholt
59'
Amin Chiakha
67'
⚽Mads Bomholtassist: Emil Konradsen Ceide
🔁Solomon Owusuout: Johannes Andres Hummelvoll-Nunez
70'
78'
🔁Tobias Solheim Dahlout: Jonas Sogaard Mortensen
🔁Samuel Holmout: jakub jezierski
82'
🔁Daniel Eidout: Simen Rafn
83'
90+3'
⚽Amin Chiakha (pen)
90+3'
🔁Amin Chiakhaout: Maciej Soboczynski
90+4'
🔁Emil Konradsen Ceideout: David Duris

Match stats — Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg

48%Possession52%
15Shots18
5On target4
4Corners4
1.55xG2.41

Goals against chances

Fredrikstad0 from 1.55 xGless than the chances were worth
Rosenborg3 from 2.41 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Fredrikstad 3-4-3
  • 77M. BørsheimG
  • 38I. AmundsenD
  • 12U. FredriksenD
  • 28S. OwusuD
  • 19F. GhebreyohannesM
  • 6S. Leach HolmM
  • 14M. NilssonM
  • 16D. EidM
  • 11L. WestF
  • 18B. FiabemaF
  • 23H. SkogvoldF
Substitutes
  • 7B. ThoresenF
  • 21J. JezierskiM
  • 9S. LaghzaouiM
  • 10J. Hummelvoll-NuñezF
  • 5S. RafnD
  • 30J. TorkildsenG
  • 29G. WessehM
  • 27Chris Irénée Ntamack PondyD
Coach: Casper Röjkjaer
Rosenborg 4-4-2
  • 1L. WahlstedtG
  • 16A. WitryD
  • 4M. CeïdeD
  • 21T. NemčíkD
  • 3T. SolheimD
  • 11N. SahsahM
  • 17M. BomholtM
  • 10O. SelnæsM
  • 22J. SvenssonM
  • 18Amin ChiakhaF
  • 35E. CeïdeF
Substitutes
  • 30M. SoboczynskiF
  • 12R. SandbergG
  • 14J. Reitan-SundeF
  • 15J. MortensenD
  • 23M. MampassiD
  • 6M. KjøløM
  • 9D. IslamovićF
  • 8I. FossumM
  • 29D. ĎurišF
Coach: Freyr Alexandersson

Form going into Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg

Fredrikstad

Eliteserien

  • L1-5away to Molde25 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Viking17 October 2026
  • D1-1Tromso11 October 2026

Rosenborg

Eliteserien

  • W3-0away to Ham-Kam24 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Sarpsborg 08 FF18 October 2026
  • D1-1Sandefjord10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Fredrikstad2686123146-1530
3Rosenborg2614485332+2146

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg

  • 27 July 2026Rosenborg 4–0 FredrikstadEliteserien
  • 28 May 2025Fredrikstad 0–2 RosenborgEliteserien
  • 5 April 2025Rosenborg 1–0 FredrikstadEliteserien
  • 27 July 2024Fredrikstad 2–2 RosenborgEliteserien
  • 2 June 2024Rosenborg 1–1 FredrikstadEliteserien
  • 1 May 2024Fredrikstad 1–0 RosenborgNM Cupen

Leading scorers: Fredrikstad and Rosenborg

Fredrikstad

No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.

Rosenborg

GoalsAssists

  • Amin Chiakha184

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rosenborg won 3–0 at Fredrikstad. The model had made a win for Rosenborg its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Amin Chiakha 45' for Rosenborg, Mads Bomholt 67' for Rosenborg, Amin Chiakha (penalty) 90+3' for Rosenborg. On expected goals it finished 1.55–2.41.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fredrikstad a 3.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 2.1% after a draw, 4.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.7%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Fredrikstad v Rosenborg has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 32% / 28% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 27% / 26% / 47%: the biggest move is Rosenborg's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Fredrikstad win27%▼ −5
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Rosenborg win47%▲ +7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.