Brann vs Molde Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: Brann 3-2 Molde.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Brann, 24% draw, 38% Molde — fair odds of 2.63, 4.17 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Brann at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Brann vs Molde
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12S. NilsenG
- 15J. TorsvikD
- 3F. KnudsenD
- 21N. KasanwirjoD
- 17J. SoltvedtD
- 10K. IngasonM
- 25N. Jensen WassbergM
- 19E. GuðmundssonM
- 16K. EriksenF
- 29N. HolmF
- 9N. CastroF
- 20V. DragsnesD
- 11B. FinneF
- 43B. HaugenM
- 36Håkon Melås HellesøyG
- 2L. CornicD
- 39J. LægreidF
- 22S. MagnússonF
- 14U. MathisenM
- 23T. PedersenD
- 22A. PosiadałaG
- 25M. LinnesD
- 19E. HauganD
- 33B. RisaD
- 27F. DahlD
- 11C. Zady SeryM
- 30D. DagaM
- 23S. GranaasM
- 16S. KilenM
- 20K. LonebuF
- 10E. BreivikF
- 9J. AbdulaiF
- 28V. BenderM
- 17M. Møller DæhliM
- 4S. HansenD
- 24Trent Toure Kone DohertyF
- 12P. LervikG
- 8M. LøvikD
- 6N. ØdegårdM
- 21O. Spiten-NysæterF
Form going into Brann vs Molde
Brann
Eliteserien
- L2-3away to Lillestrom25 October 2026
- L1-3away to Valerenga18 October 2026
- L0-2Viking9 October 2026
Molde
Eliteserien
- W5-1Fredrikstad25 October 2026
- W6-1Start18 October 2026
- D2-2away to Lillestrom11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Brann | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 33 |
| 5 | Molde | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 64 | 44 | +20 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Brann vs Molde
- 18 July 2026Molde 1–2 BrannEliteserien
- 22 November 2025Molde 4–0 BrannEliteserien
- 29 May 2025Brann 0–3 MoldeEliteserien
- 23 November 2024Molde 2–1 BrannEliteserien
- 26 May 2024Brann 1–3 MoldeEliteserien
- 19 March 2024Molde 1–0 BrannFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Brann and Molde
Brann
GoalsAssists
- N. Holm83
- K. Ingason83
Molde
GoalsAssists
- K. Lonebu152
- E. Breivik1010
- E. Hestad82
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Brann beat Molde 3–2. The goals: Jonas Tviberg Torsvik 1' for Brann, Sander Hestetun Kilen 23' for Molde, Noah Jean Holm 61' for Brann, Kristian Lonebu (penalty) 68' for Molde, Kristall Mani Ingason 81' for Brann. On expected goals it finished 1.63–3.39.
How the call on Brann v Molde has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 44% / 25% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 38% / 24% / 38%: the biggest move is Molde's chance of winning, up 7 points.
- Brann win38%▼ −6
- Draw24%▼ −1
- Molde win38%▲ +7
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.