O'Higgins vs Nublense Primera División prediction & result
Final score: O'Higgins 1-0 Nublense.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% O'Higgins, 28% draw, 27% Nublense — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
O'Higgins at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — O'Higgins vs Nublense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 31O. CarabalíG
- 3Felipe Andrés Faúndez GonzálezD
- 22A. RobledoD
- 21N. GarridoD
- 20L. DíazD
- 17T. AvilésM
- 8F. OgazM
- 10B. RabelloM
- 28W. BouM
- 29B. YáñezM
- 9A. CastilloF
- 18E. MoreiraF
- 6L. PavezD
- 1J. PeñaG
- 34B. LeivaM
- 25I. SchorF
- 30J. TapiaF
- 2C. MoralesD
- 7S. TolozaM
- 32T. VecinoF
- 1N. PérezG
- 3C. SalomónD
- 4O. BossoD
- 6P. CalderónD
- 15S. ValenciaD
- 21L. ReyesM
- 8G. GracianiM
- 18D. CéspedesM
- 10M. PlazaM
- 11L. MolinaM
- 26E. CalderónF
- 22A. ValdésM
- 23J. GonzalezF
- 27V. GuzmanD
- 35C. MansillaM
- 25H. MuñozG
- 7F. OvelarF
- 9F. RamiF
- 13D. SaavedraM
- 19I. TapiaM
Form going into O'Higgins vs Nublense
O'Higgins
Primera División
- D1-1Cobresal24 October 2026
- L0-2away to Huachipato10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Audax Italiano13 September 2026
Nublense
Primera División
- W2-1Coquimbo Unido25 October 2026
- L0-6away to Universidad de Chile12 October 2026
- L1-3Everton de Vina12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Chile Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | O'Higgins | 27 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 31 |
| 10 | Nublense | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 35 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: O'Higgins vs Nublense
- 13 July 2026O'Higgins 1–0 NublenseCopa De La Liga
- 9 July 2026Nublense 2–1 O'HigginsCopa De La Liga
- 25 April 2026Nublense 0–2 O'HigginsPrimera División
- 8 November 2025O'Higgins 4–2 NublensePrimera División
- 25 May 2025Nublense 0–1 O'HigginsPrimera División
- 19 October 2024O'Higgins 1–3 NublensePrimera División
Leading scorers: O'Higgins and Nublense
O'Higgins
GoalsAssists
- A. Castillo90
Nublense
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 31 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
O'Higgins beat Nublense 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for O'Higgins at 45%. The goal: Arnaldo Castillo 43' for O'Higgins. Sent off: Arnaldo Castillo (O'Higgins) 45+3', Joaquín González (Nublense) 88'. On expected goals it finished 1.24–0.53.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave O'Higgins a 21.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 10.5% after a win, 26.5% after a draw, 37.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.5%, 11.2 points lower than before the match.
For Nublense the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 2.0% going in: 5.7% after a win, 1.3% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 1.7 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Primera División season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on O'Higgins v Nublense has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 47% / 27% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 45% / 28% / 27%: the biggest move is O'Higgins's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- O'Higgins win45%▼ −2
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Nublense win27%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.