Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result
Final score: Velez Sarsfield 2-2 San Lorenzo.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Velez Sarsfield, 31% draw, 19% San Lorenzo — fair odds of 2.00, 3.23 and 5.26.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Liga Profesional Argentina predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Velez Sarsfield at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. MarchioriG
- 4J. GarcíaD
- 32Thiago SilveorD
- 16L. MagallánD
- 3Elías GómezD
- 5C. BaezaM
- 8L. RobertoneM
- 37J. PolicellaM
- 22M. LanziniM
- 11M. PellegriniM
- 77R. MartínezF
- 18S. EscobarD
- 10D. ValdésM
- 39T. AguirreF
- 35M. AriasF
- 19L. CristaldoD
- 48Luca FelerM
- 15D. GodoyF
- 21Jano GordonD
- 30L. PiolaF
- 25J. DevecchiG
- 16G. CorujoD
- 2D. ArboledaD
- 19E. AmorD
- 30O. AriasM
- 24N. TripichioM
- 10Facundo GulliM
- 3T. RodríguezM
- 38F. FaríasM
- 29R. AuzmendiF
- 9A. CuelloF
- 20F. AltamiranoG
- 34Maximo Atrio
- 35A. CordobaD
- 32E. HerreraD
- 36Daniel HerreraD
- 8M. InsaurraldeM
- 14A. LadstatterF
- 37Thiago PeruginiF
- 13Juan RattalinoM
Form going into Velez Sarsfield vs San Lorenzo
Velez Sarsfield
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W5-0away to Central Cordoba de Santiago26 October 2026
- W1-0Gimnasia Mendoza17 October 2026
- L0-2away to Lanus12 October 2026
San Lorenzo
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D0-0Newell's Old Boys24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Estudiantes La Plata18 October 2026
- W1-0Deportivo Riestra11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 25 | 17 | +8 | 28 |
| 11 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: San Lorenzo vs Velez Sarsfield
San Lorenzo and Velez Sarsfield have met 7 times in the records we hold, Velez Sarsfield has won 2 of them to San Lorenzo's 1, with 4 drawn.
The record
They drew 2–2 at Velez Sarsfield on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Lorenzo | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Velez Sarsfield | 2 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 10 goals, an average of 1.43 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaVelez Sarsfield 2–2 San Lorenzo - 20 Apr 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaSan Lorenzo 0–0 Velez Sarsfield - 7 Aug 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaSan Lorenzo 1–0 Velez Sarsfield - 8 Feb 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaVelez Sarsfield 0–0 San Lorenzo - 14 Sep 2024
Liga Profesional ArgentinaSan Lorenzo 0–1 Velez Sarsfield - 7 Aug 2024
Copa ArgentinaSan Lorenzo 1–3 Velez Sarsfield - 29 Apr 2023
Liga Profesional ArgentinaVelez Sarsfield 0–0 San Lorenzo
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Velez Sarsfield's attack rates 68% above San Lorenzo's, and San Lorenzo concede 4% fewer than Velez Sarsfield. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| San Lorenzo | 0.57 | 1.15 |
| Velez Sarsfield | 0.96 | 1.20 |
Leading scorers: Velez Sarsfield and San Lorenzo
Velez Sarsfield
GoalsAssists
- R. Martínez132
San Lorenzo
GoalsAssists
- R. Auzmendi72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Velez Sarsfield and San Lorenzo drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Velez Sarsfield at 50% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Juan Cruz Policella 22' for Velez Sarsfield, Matías Pellegrini 25' for Velez Sarsfield, Alexis·Cuello 45+1' for San Lorenzo, Rodrigo Auzmendi 81' for San Lorenzo. On expected goals it finished 1.23–1.02.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Velez Sarsfield a 4.9% chance to finish top of the Clausura Group A: 8.6% after a win, 0.0% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 0.0%, 4.9 points lower than before the match.
For San Lorenzo the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 27.9% going in: 70.2% after a win, 30.0% after a draw, 14.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 30.0%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Velez Sarsfield v San Lorenzo has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 47% / 32% / 21% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 50% / 31% / 19%: the biggest move is Velez Sarsfield's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Velez Sarsfield win50%▲ +3
- Draw31%▼ −1
- San Lorenzo win19%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.