KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam Eliteserien prediction & result
Final score: KFUM Oslo 2-2 Ham-Kam.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% KFUM Oslo, 26% draw, 26% Ham-Kam — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
KFUM Oslo at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1E. ØdegaardG
- 2D. SchneiderD
- 5F. BerglieD
- 13B. SkaretD
- 14H. HosethM
- 9M. VinjorM
- 7R. RaschM
- 16J. HjorthM
- 11O. VistedF
- 28M. GrødemF
- 10B. NjieF
- 23M. EikremM
- 25H. JensenG
- 22B. KristensenF
- 24H. RøstenD
- 19E. SaunesD
- 21S. SjøkvistD
- 27T. SøråsM
- 8B. TobiassenM
- 18R. VingeF
- 12M. SandbergG
- 7V. JónssonD
- 2M. GjoneD
- 23F. SjølstadD
- 27João BarrosD
- 5A. AndresenD
- 10L. MettlerM
- 14L. MaresM
- 26P. MetcalfeM
- 17A. PoturF
- 28David BenjaminF
- 13S. ØstraatG
- 16A. TrondsenM
- 19H. UdahlF
- 6W. Osnes-RingenM
- 4H. OpsahlD
- 22S. NilsenD
- 18Duarte MoreiraF
- 3E. Amundsen-DayD
- 24D. Al-SaedF
Form going into KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam
KFUM Oslo
Eliteserien
- D2-2away to Kristiansund BK25 October 2026
- D1-1away to Tromso18 October 2026
- W2-1Valerenga12 October 2026
Ham-Kam
Eliteserien
- L0-3Rosenborg24 October 2026
- L0-2Bodo/Glimt17 October 2026
- W4-2away to Start11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | KFUM Oslo | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 31 |
| 11 | Ham-Kam | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 38 | 53 | -15 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: KFUM Oslo vs Ham-Kam
- 19 April 2026Ham-Kam 4–0 KFUM OsloEliteserien
- 22 August 2025KFUM Oslo 2–2 Ham-KamEliteserien
- 2 May 2025Ham-Kam 0–0 KFUM OsloEliteserien
- 1 December 2024Ham-Kam 0–2 KFUM OsloEliteserien
- 21 June 2024Ham-Kam 3–2 KFUM OsloFriendlies Clubs
- 2 April 2024KFUM Oslo 1–1 Ham-KamEliteserien
Leading scorers: KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam
KFUM Oslo
GoalsAssists
- B. Njie83
Ham-Kam
No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 38 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
KFUM Oslo and Ham-Kam drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for KFUM Oslo at 48% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Magnus Grødem 32' for KFUM Oslo, Magnus Grødem 71' for KFUM Oslo, Patrick Metcalfe 80' for Ham-Kam, Henrik Udahl 86' for Ham-Kam. On expected goals it finished 1.16–0.92.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave KFUM Oslo a 1.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 1.6% after a draw, 4.6% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 1.6%.
For Ham-Kam the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 23.9% going in: 8.1% after a win, 22.7% after a draw, 31.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 22.7%, 1.2 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Eliteserien season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on KFUM Oslo v Ham-Kam has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 46% / 26% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 48% / 26% / 26%: the biggest move is KFUM Oslo's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- KFUM Oslo win48%▲ +2
- Draw26%=
- Ham-Kam win26%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.