16 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Frosinone vs Sassuolo Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone
Referee: Matteo Marchetti, Italy
Full time4 – 2

Final score: Frosinone 4-2 Sassuolo.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Frosinone, 28% draw, 31% Sassuolo — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Frosinone at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Frosinone99%Draw1%Sassuolo0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Giacomo Calò
9'
15'
⚽Domenico Berardiassist: Darryl Bakola
•Giorgi Kvernadze
17'
⚽Antonio Raimondo
26'
⚽Antonio Raimondo
30'
37'
⚽Kristian Thorstvedt
⚽Antonio Raimondo
57'
58'
🔁Kristian Thorstvedtout: Kieron Bowie
67'
🔁Sebastiano Espositoout: Benjamin Dominguez
68'
🔁Josh Doigout: Rafael Obrador
68'
🔁Nemanja Matićout: Luca Lipani
🔁Ilario Monterisiout: Omar Fayed Abdelwahab El Rakhawy
74'
🔁Giorgi Kvernadzeout: Alessio Zerbin
74'
🔁Anthony Oyonoout: Wisdom Amey
80'
🔁Giacomo Calòout: Matteo Cichella
80'
82'
Kieron Bowie
83'
🔁Armand Laurienteout: Cristian Volpato
🔁Antonio Raimondoout: Daniel Birligea
90'

Match stats — Frosinone vs Sassuolo

42%Possession58%
21Shots14
10On target6
5Corners4
2.12xG1.94

Goals against chances

Frosinone4 from 2.12 xGmore than the chances were worth
Sassuolo2 from 1.94 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Frosinone 4-2-3-1
  • 22L. PalmisaniG
  • 20A. OyonoD
  • 2G. CittadiniD
  • 30I. MonterisiD
  • 79G. BracagliaD
  • 73P. MasiniM
  • 14G. CalòM
  • 7F. GhedjemisM
  • 10R. SchmidM
  • 17G. KvernadzeM
  • 9A. RaimondoF
Substitutes
  • 24A. ZerbinF
  • 71A. TerzićD
  • 90E. TchatoD
  • 12M. PisseriG
  • 70L. HasaM
  • 40S. FiniF
  • 74Omar FayedD
  • 34A. El AzzouziM
  • 91S. DesplanchesG
Coach: M. Alvini
Sassuolo 4-2-3-1
  • 49A. MurićG
  • 20I. Van der BremptD
  • 26C. OdenthalD
  • 15D. Ćaleta-CarD
  • 3J. DoigD
  • 18N. MatićM
  • 50D. BakolaM
  • 10D. BerardiM
  • 42K. ThorstvedtM
  • 45A. LaurientéM
  • 94S. EspositoF
Substitutes
  • 46S. CinquegranoM
  • 6S. WalukiewiczD
  • 25B. DomínguezF
  • 8A. GhionM
  • 35L. LipaniM
  • 33Rafael ObradorD
  • 70E. PieragnoloD
  • 12G. SatalinoG
  • 19L. SkjellerupF
Coach: A. Aquilani

Form going into Frosinone vs Sassuolo

Frosinone

All competitions we cover

  • L0-3away to Napoli10 October 2026
  • W2-0Como20 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Genoa12 September 2026
  • W3-2Venezia6 September 2026
  • W3-0away to Fiorentina29 August 2026

Sassuolo

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1AC Milan11 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Monza18 September 2026
  • W3-2Juventus13 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Bologna6 September 2026
  • W2-1Torino29 August 2026

What these results say

  • Frosinone scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sassuolo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Sassuolo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Sassuolo.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Frosinone116232415+920
17Sassuolo112271629-138

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Frosinone vs Sassuolo

  • 2 September 2026Sassuolo 1–1 FrosinoneCoppa Italia
  • 13 May 2025Sassuolo 0–1 FrosinoneSerie B
  • 14 December 2024Frosinone 1–2 SassuoloSerie B
  • 9 March 2024Sassuolo 1–0 FrosinoneSerie A
  • 17 September 2023Frosinone 4–2 SassuoloSerie A
  • 5 May 2019Sassuolo 2–2 FrosinoneSerie A

The full Frosinone vs Sassuolo record →

Leading scorers: Frosinone and Sassuolo

Frosinone

GoalsAssists

  • A. Raimondo80
  • G. Calò51

Sassuolo

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Frosinone beat Sassuolo 4–2. The model had made a win for Frosinone its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Giacomo Calò 9' for Frosinone, Domenico Berardi 15' for Sassuolo, Antonio Raimondo 26' for Frosinone, Antonio Raimondo 30' for Frosinone, Kristian Thorstvedt 37' for Sassuolo, Antonio Raimondo 57' for Frosinone. On expected goals it finished 2.12–1.94.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Frosinone a 5.4% chance to finish in the top four: 6.7% after a win, 4.0% after a draw, 3.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.7%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Frosinone v Sassuolo has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 43% / 29% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is Sassuolo's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Frosinone win41%▼ −2
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Sassuolo win31%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.