Aarhus vs SC Braga UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Aarhus 0-0 SC Braga.
Before kick-off the model made it 25% Aarhus, 29% draw, 46% SC Braga — fair odds of 4.00, 3.45 and 2.17.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Conference League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
SC Braga at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aarhus vs SC Braga
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 21Mads HedenstadG
- 14Tobias MølgaardD
- 25Colin RöslerD
- 33Luka CalløD
- 29Rasmus CarstensenM
- 10Kristian ArnstadM
- 4Magnus KnudsenM
- 11Gift LinksM
- 8Sebastian JørgensenF
- 18Callum McCowattF
- 27Stefen TchamcheF
- 26Jacob AndersenD
- 39Frederik EmmeryF
- 28James BogereF
- 31Tobias BechF
- 7Markus SolbakkenM
- 1Jesper HansenG
- 42Marius van der RaadG
- 44Mouhammade CamaraD
- 45Christian StorchD
- 31Bernardo FontesG
- 2Victor GómezD
- 37Adrian Leon BarišićD
- 14Gustaf LagerbielkeD
- 7Diogo TravassosD
- 8João MoutinhoM
- 29Jean-Baptiste GorbyM
- 20Mario DorgelesM
- 21Ricardo HortaM
- 77Gabriel MartínezM
- 10Pau VíctorF
- 19Jonas WindF
- 50Diego RodriguesM
- 9Fran NavarroF
- 26Bright Arrey-MbiD
- 98Flinto CostaF
- 78Joao CarvalhoG
- 6Vítor CarvalhoM
- 44Adrian BajramiD
- 16Tomás MarquésM
Form going into Aarhus vs SC Braga
Aarhus
UEFA Europa Conference League
- D1-1Egnatia Rrogozhinë22 October 2026
- L0-1away to Gent15 October 2026
SC Braga
UEFA Europa Conference League
- W2-0Gent22 October 2026
- L0-3away to FC Copenhagen15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Aarhus | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 |
| 17 | SC Braga | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Aarhus and SC Braga drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for SC Braga at 46% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 1.57–2.35.
How the call on Aarhus v SC Braga has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 31% / 27% / 42% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 25% / 29% / 46%: the biggest move is Aarhus's chance of winning, down 6 points.
- Aarhus win25%▼ −6
- Draw29%▲ +2
- SC Braga win46%▲ +4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Aarhus's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and SC Braga's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.