Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Atalanta 1-1 Kairat Almaty.
Before kick-off the model made it 77% Atalanta, 16% draw, 7% Kairat Almaty — fair odds of 1.30, 6.25 and 14.29.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Atalanta at 77%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 29Marco CarnesecchiG
- 41Javison IdeleD
- 42Giorgio ScalviniD
- 40Relja ObrićD
- 47Lorenzo BernasconiD
- 99Eljif ElmasM
- 8Mario PašalićM
- 7Kamaldeen SulemanaM
- 10Lazar SamardžićM
- 11Jonathan RoweM
- 9Gianluca ScamaccaF
- 13ÉdersonM
- 59Nicola ZalewskiM
- 17Charles De KetelaereF
- 90Nikola KrstovićF
- 77Davide ZappacostaD
- 57Marco SportielloG
- 51Mattia SonzogniG
- 56Albert NavarroD
- 55Isaac IsoaD
- 1Temirlan AnarbekovG
- 24Aleksandr MrynskiyD
- 25Aleksandr ShirobokovD
- 14Aleksandr MartynovichD
- 4Damir KasabulatD
- 3Luís MataD
- 17Azamat TuyakbayevM
- 22Gustavo MendoncaM
- 13Jaakko OksanenM
- 9EdmilsonF
- 28Marc GualF
- 19Oiva JukkolaM
- 81Ismail BekbolatF
- 20Erkin TapalovD
- 6Adilet SadybekovM
- 8Olzhas BaibekM
- 82Sherkhan KalmurzaG
- 5Lev KurginD
- 15Mansur BirkurmanovF
Form going into Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty
Atalanta
UEFA Europa Conference League
- L0-2away to Ajax22 October 2026
- W3-1Pafos15 October 2026
Kairat Almaty
UEFA Europa Conference League
- L1-5Panathinaikos22 October 2026
- D1-1away to Riga15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Atalanta | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 27 | Kairat Almaty | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Atalanta and Kairat Almaty drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Atalanta at 77% and given a draw 16%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: M. Gual 53' for Kairat Almaty, N. Krstovic 82' for Atalanta. On expected goals it finished 1.89–0.67.
How the call on Atalanta v Kairat Almaty has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 92% / 6% / 2% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 77% / 16% / 7%: the biggest move is Atalanta's chance of winning, down 15 points.
- Atalanta win77%▼ −15
- Draw16%▲ +10
- Kairat Almaty win7%▲ +5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.