Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Sunderland 0-2 Dinamo Zagreb.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Sunderland, 23% draw, 18% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Europa League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sunderland at 59%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22R. RoefsG
- 12T. MeunierD
- 4K. DansoD
- 15O. AldereteD
- 6D. MethalieD
- 34G. XhakaM
- 29Jules AhokaM
- 10N. AnguloM
- 11C. RiggM
- 39M. FofanaM
- 18W. IsidorF
- 32T. HumeD
- 9B. BrobbeyF
- 28E. Le FéeM
- 17ReinildoD
- 21S. MooreG
- 13L. O'NienM
- 77T. ProctorM
- 27N. SadikiM
- 7C. TalbiF
- 24D. KotarskiG
- 25M. ValinčićD
- 36Sergi DomínguezD
- 15N. GalešićD
- 3B. GodaD
- 27J. MišićM
- 21M. LisicaM
- 80L. KačavendaM
- 10L. StojkovićM
- 99M. OršićM
- 9D. BeljoF
- 8M. ZajcM
- 1D. ZagoracG
- 41S. SuntaM
- 7Dani RodríguezF
- 6S. RadeljićD
- 14S. PrevljakF
- 22Olof Matteo Perez VinlöfD
- 35N. MikicD
- 17L. IvanušecM
Form going into Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb
Sunderland
UEFA Europa League
- D1-1away to Lech Poznan22 October 2026
- W2-1away to Torreense15 October 2026
- W1-0AZ Alkmaar16 September 2026
Dinamo Zagreb
UEFA Europa League
- L2-4NEC Nijmegen22 October 2026
- W1-0Anderlecht15 October 2026
- D0-0away to Hapoel Beer Sheva16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sunderland | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Sunderland and Dinamo Zagreb
Sunderland
No player in UEFA Europa League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Dinamo Zagreb
GoalsAssists
- D. Beljo40
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Dinamo Zagreb won 2–0 at Sunderland. The model had leaned towards a win for Sunderland at 59% and given a win for Dinamo Zagreb 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: Luka Stojkovic 22' for Dinamo Zagreb, Dion Drena Beljo 39' for Dinamo Zagreb. On expected goals it finished 1.64–1.32.
How the call on Sunderland v Dinamo Zagreb has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 42% / 26% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 59% / 23% / 18%: the biggest move is Sunderland's chance of winning, up 17 points.
- Sunderland win59%▲ +17
- Draw23%▼ −3
- Dinamo Zagreb win18%▼ −14
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.