Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Torreense 3-2 Ararat-Armenia.
Before kick-off the model made it 57% Torreense, 25% draw, 18% Ararat-Armenia — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Torreense at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Lucas PaesG
- 45J. MutomboD
- 5M. DiadieD
- 4Volnei FeltesD
- 23Javi VázquezD
- 33João MarquesM
- 8Alejandro AlfaroM
- 11Manu PozoM
- 19K. ZoabiM
- 7D. JeanM
- 14Jorge AguirreF
- 31AdrielG
- 3Juan María AlcedoD
- 44S. HenriksenG
- 22David BrunoD
- 17M. DrammehF
- 21Nuha JattaM
- 6A. OudrhiriM
- 29L. QuinteroF
- 26André SimõesM
- 98João BravimG
- 2Hugo OliveiraD
- 43Bruno WilsonD
- 47A. MalisD
- 16E. GrigoryanD
- 19K. MuradyanM
- 8J. BalantaM
- 77A. SerobyanM
- 70B. OliveiraM
- 7Z. ShaghoyanM
- 91Sandro LimaF
- 10A. AmbartsumyanM
- 20A. TeraM
- 14Bruno PereiraD
- 25A. NdourF
- 5Luís FelipeD
- 13K. HovhannisyanD
- 95FrançaF
- 9A. EloyanM
- 17M. CarlierM
Form going into Torreense vs Ararat-Armenia
Torreense
UEFA Europa League
- L1-4away to Ferencvarosi TC22 October 2026
- L1-2Sunderland15 October 2026
- W2-1away to Lillestrom17 September 2026
Ararat-Armenia
UEFA Europa League
- L0-4AZ Alkmaar22 October 2026
- L1-3away to Jagiellonia15 October 2026
- L1-4Sparta Praha16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Torreense | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Torreense beat Ararat-Armenia 3–2. The model had made a win for Torreense its most likely outcome, at 57%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jorge Aguirre de Céspedes 13' for Torreense, Karen Muradyan 41' for Ararat-Armenia, Bruno Wilson 58' for Ararat-Armenia, Javi Vazquez 90+3' for Torreense, musa drammeh 90+5' for Torreense. Sent off: Jorge Aguirre de Céspedes (Torreense) 25', joao donna (Ararat-Armenia) 76'. On expected goals it finished 1.77–1.67.
How the call on Torreense v Ararat-Armenia has moved
First published on 23 Oct at 59% / 23% / 18% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 57% / 25% / 18%: the biggest move is Torreense's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Torreense win57%▼ −2
- Draw25%▲ +2
- Ararat-Armenia win18%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Torreense's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Ararat-Armenia's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.