17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Aberdeen vs St Mirren Premiership prediction & result

Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Aberdeen 3-1 St Mirren.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Aberdeen, 28% draw, 24% St Mirren — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Aberdeen at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Aberdeen99%Draw1%St Mirren0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Brad Lyonsassist: Connor Patrick Ronan
2'
31'
Ryan Carr
42'
⚽Eseosa Suleassist: Killian Phillips
🔁Connor Patrick Ronanout: Stuart Armstrong
45'
🔁Brad Lyonsout: Tony Yogane
45'
56'
Paul Nsio
•Tony Yogane
58'
⚽Kevin Nisbet (pen)
58'
⚽Kevin Nisbet
58'
59'
🔁Luke Thomasout: Samuel Antonio Ramos Linares
67'
🔁Paul Nsioout: Fraser Taylor
🔁Toyosi Olusanyaout: Ayoub Mouloua
71'
⚽Ayoub Moulouaassist: Afeez Aremu Olalekan
72'
74'
🔁Eseosa Suleout: Jake Young
🔁Lewis Smithout: Emmanuel Gyamfi
76'
Stuart Armstrong
77'
🔁Kevin Nisbetout: Findlay Marshall
90+3'

Match stats — Aberdeen vs St Mirren

34%Possession66%
17Shots13
7On target7
2Corners6
2.33xG1.02

Goals against chances

Aberdeen3 from 2.33 xGmore than the chances were worth
St Mirren1 from 1.02 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Aberdeen 4-2-3-1
  • 27M. MüllerG
  • 28C. CaddenD
  • 23L. MayoD
  • 5M. KnoesterD
  • 24N. Guinness-WalkerD
  • 8B. LyonsM
  • 32A. AremuM
  • 11Lewis SmithM
  • 25C. RonanM
  • 20T. OlusanyaM
  • 15K. NisbetF
Substitutes
  • 17S. ArmstrongM
  • 77E. GyamfiD
  • 26D. HappeD
  • 30D. KleinG
  • 40F. MarshallM
  • 22J. MilneD
  • 21G. MolloyD
  • 9A. MoulouaF
  • 7Tony YoganeF
Coach: S. Robinson
St Mirren 4-4-2
  • 1J. ChapmanG
  • 47C. RamsayD
  • 13A. GogićD
  • 22M. FraserD
  • 3D. JohnD
  • 16L. ThomasM
  • 8R. CarrM
  • 48P. NsioM
  • 19Ismeal KabiaM
  • 9Eseosa SuleF
  • 88K. PhillipsF
Substitutes
  • 4L. DonnellyM
  • 53Henry FieldsonD
  • 6Louis JacksonD
  • 37C. McEvoyM
  • 23C. MochrieM
  • 10SamuM
  • 30F. TaylorM
  • 35Grant TamoseviciusG
  • 20J. YoungF
Coach: Craig McLeish

Form going into Aberdeen vs St Mirren

Aberdeen

Premiership

  • L0-1St Johnstone11 October 2026

St Mirren

All competitions we cover

  • L0-5away to Heart of Midlothian10 October 2026
  • L0-3Dundee United19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Rangers9 September 2026
  • L1-2Celtic5 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Kilmarnock2 September 2026

What these results say

  • St Mirren failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • St Mirren conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premiership table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Aberdeen123271218-611
8St Mirren134271222-1014

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Aberdeen vs St Mirren

  • 12 May 2026Aberdeen 0–2 St MirrenPremiership
  • 4 April 2026St Mirren 2–0 AberdeenPremiership
  • 3 December 2025Aberdeen 3–3 St MirrenPremiership
  • 18 October 2025St Mirren 0–1 AberdeenPremiership
  • 3 May 2025St Mirren 1–0 AberdeenPremiership
  • 25 January 2025Aberdeen 0–3 St MirrenPremiership

Leading scorers: Aberdeen and St Mirren

Aberdeen

GoalsAssists

  • K. Nisbet43

St Mirren

No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Aberdeen beat St Mirren 3–1. The model had made a win for Aberdeen its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Brad Lyons 2' for Aberdeen, Eseosa Sule 42' for St Mirren, Kevin Nisbet 58' for Aberdeen, Ayoub Mouloua 72' for Aberdeen. On expected goals it finished 2.33–1.02.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Aberdeen a 35.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 30.3% after a win, 39.0% after a draw, 44.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.3%, 5.3 points lower than before the match.

For St Mirren the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three: 47.9% after a win, 57.3% after a draw, 63.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure about where it was, at 63.3%.

Read from our Premiership season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Aberdeen v St Mirren has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 43% / 30% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 48% / 28% / 24%: the biggest move is Aberdeen's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Aberdeen win48%▲ +5
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. St Mirren win24%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.